{
    "tag": 8095,
    "title": "Estuarine Back-barrier Shoreline and Beach Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities: Event-driven backshore shoreline change",
    "pubdate": "20170412",
    "sername": null,
    "series_name": null,
    "issue": "doi:10.5066\/F7CZ35BC",
    "publish": null,
    "publisher_name": null,
    "onlink": "https:\/\/cmgds.marine.usgs.gov\/catalog\/spcmsc\/Predict_HS_Backshore_metadata.faq.html",
    "format": null,
    "email": null,
    "descript": "The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline (backshore) and beach sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and storm-derived overwash and back-barrier shoreline change. Input variables were constructed into a Bayesian Network (BN) using Netica, a computer program created by NORSYS Software Corporation that allows users to work with belief networks and influence diagrams. Each model is tested on its ability to predict changes in long-term and event-driven (for example, Hurricane Sandy-induced) backshore and sandline change based on learned correlations from the input variables across the domain. Using the input hydrodynamic and geomorphic data, the BN is constrained to produce a prediction of an updated conditional probability of backshore or sandline change at each location. To evaluate the ability of the BN to reproduce the observations used to train the model, the skill, log likelihood ratio and probability predictions were utilized. These data are the probability and skill metrics for the event-driven estuarine back-barrier shoreline change model.",
    "lang": null,
    "journal": null,
    "pwid": null,
    "originator": [
        {
            "name": "Smith, Kathryn E. L.",
            "role": "Author"
        },
        {
            "name": "Passeri, Davina L.",
            "role": "Author"
        },
        {
            "name": "Plant, Nathaniel G.",
            "role": "Author"
        }
    ],
    "index_term": [
        {
            "thcode": 2,
            "code": "311",
            "name": "ecology",
            "scope": "Study of the relations between living plants and animals and their environment."
        },
        {
            "thcode": 2,
            "code": "464",
            "name": "geology",
            "scope": "Study of the planet earth, its composition, structure, physical and chemical processes, and history since its origin."
        },
        {
            "thcode": 2,
            "code": "468",
            "name": "geomorphology",
            "scope": "Branch of geology dealing with surface land features and the processes that create and change them."
        },
        {
            "thcode": 15,
            "code": "007",
            "name": "environment",
            "scope": "Environmental resources, protection and conservation, for example environmental pollution, waste storage and treatment, environmental impact assessment, monitoring environmental risk, nature reserves, landscape, water quality, air quality, environmental modeling"
        },
        {
            "thcode": 15,
            "code": "008",
            "name": "geoscientificInformation",
            "scope": "Information pertaining to earth sciences, for example geophysical features and processes, geology, minerals, sciences dealing with the composition, structure and origin of the earth's rocks, risks of earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, gravity information, soils, permafrost, hydrogeology, groundwater, erosion"
        },
        {
            "thcode": 15,
            "code": "014",
            "name": "oceans",
            "scope": "Features and characteristics of salt water bodies (excluding inland waters), for example tides, tidal waves, coastal information, reefs, maritime, outer continental shelf submerged lands, shoreline"
        }
    ],
    "place_term": [],
    "image": [],
    "fan": [
        "2018-302-MD"
    ]
}