Velocity hazard projections at Pierce County, Washington

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title: Velocity hazard projections at Pierce County, Washington
Abstract:
Velocity hazards (maximum depth times velocity) from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Pierce County, Washington. These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood depths and water elevation), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Washington communities. The data are provided as shapefiles for 36 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters (m) combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods, as well as the background, no storm, conditions).
Supplemental_Information:
This work is one portion of ongoing national modeling efforts. The Coastal Storm Modeling system (CoSMoS) uses several tiers of numerical models to make detailed predictions (meter-scale) of flooding and erosion over large geographic scales. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pcmsc/science/coastal-storm-modeling-system-cosmos
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Parker, Kai A., Nederhoff, Kees, Erikson, Li H., Engelstad, Anita C., Hayden, Maya K., Barnard, Patrick L., and Grossman, Eric E., 20251126, Velocity hazard projections at Pierce County, Washington: data release DOI: 10.5066/P14U7EK2, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, CA.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Parker, Kai A., Nederhoff, Kees, Erikson, Li H., Engelstad, Anita C., Hayden, Maya K., Barnard, Patrick L., and Grossman, Eric E., 2025, CoSMoS-Puget Sound Modeled Flood Hazards at Pierce County - Washington: data release DOI: 10.5066/P14U7EK2, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, CA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested Citation: Parker, K., Nederhoff, K., Erikson L.H., Engelstad, A.C., Hayden, M.K., Barnard, P.L., and Grossman, E.E., 2025, CoSMoS-Puget Sound Modeled Flood Hazards at Pierce County - Washington: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P14U7EK2.
  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.842677
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.212181
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 47.404199
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 46.929534
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Calendar_Date: 2025
    Currentness_Reference:
    publication year
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: polygon shapefiles
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Vector data set. It contains the following vector data types (SDTS terminology):
      • G-Polygon
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Grid_Coordinate_System_Name: Universal Transverse Mercator
      Universal_Transverse_Mercator:
      UTM_Zone_Number: 10
      Transverse_Mercator:
      Scale_Factor_at_Central_Meridian: 0.9996
      Longitude_of_Central_Meridian: -123.0
      Latitude_of_Projection_Origin: 0.00000
      False_Easting: 500000.0
      False_Northing: 0.00
      Planar coordinates are encoded using row and column
      Abscissae (x-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 2
      Ordinates (y-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 2
      Planar coordinates are specified in Meters
      The horizontal datum used is NAD83.
      The ellipsoid used is GRS 1980.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.00.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257222101.
      Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition:
      Depth_System_Definition:
      Depth_Datum_Name: North American Vertical Datum of 1988
      Depth_Resolution: 0.01
      Depth_Distance_Units: meters
      Depth_Encoding_Method: Implicit coordinate
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    velocity hazard projections (Velocity_hazard_projections-Pierce.zip)
    shapefiles contain projections of the velocity_hazard_projections at indicated sea-level rise (SLR) and return period (RP) (Source: Producer defined)
    Severity
    Severity Category for velocity hazard (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    LowLow Velocity Hazard
    MediumMedium Velocity Hazard
    HighHigh Velocity Hazard
    VeryHighVery High Velocity Hazard
    ExtremeExtreme Velocity Hazard
    Range
    Velocity Depth bin values for Severity Category (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    <0.2Velocity Depth Range for Low hazard severity
    0.2-0.5Velocity Depth Range for medium hazard severity
    0.5-1.5Velocity Depth Range for High hazard severity
    1.5-2.5Velocity Depth Range for Very High hazard severity
    >2.5Velocity Depth Range for Extreme hazard severity
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    The zip file contains velocity hazards (maximum depth x velocity with coincident flood hazards and are organized by return periods. Return periods include the no storm ‘average’ condition (rp000), and statistical once-a-year storms (rp001), every 10 (rp10), every 20 (rp20) and every 100 years (rp100) storms. File names reflect the geographic area of the projection (County, here Pierce County), the attribute, here velocity hazard (velHzrd), the sea-level rise (slr) scenario, and the return period (rp) of storm conditions. SLR scenarios are listed in centimeters and range from no SLR (slr000) to a SLR of 300 cm (slr300). For example, Pierce_velHzrd_slr200_rp100 contains the flood extent for a sea level rise of 200 cm (2 m) during a projected hundred-year storm in Pierce County, Washington
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation: U.S. Geological Survey

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Kai A. Parker
    • Kees Nederhoff
    • Li H. Erikson
    • Anita C. Engelstad
    • Maya K. Hayden
    • Patrick L. Barnard
    • Eric E. Grossman
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
    This work was funded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pierce County Planning & Public Works; Surface Water Management Agreement# 23ZPCOLLSC109618, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Statement of Work DW-014-92578201/ EPA-CF-0000007695 to the USGS. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the EPA, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Computation resources were supported by the USGS Advanced Research Computing (Falgout and others, 2024).
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

This product was created to fulfill the Bureau-wide vision of an integrated, predictive science capability to support Washington communities in building resiliency from natural disasters, sovereignty and self-determination, and emergency response and planning capacity. These data are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, technical users, students, and the general public. These data are not intended to be used for navigation.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    DEM (source 1 of 4)
    Tyler, D.J., Danielson, Jeff J., Grossman, Eric E., and Hockenberry, R.J., 2020, Topobathymetric Model of Puget Sound, Washington, 1887 to 2017: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: DEM
    CMIP6 Waves (source 2 of 4)
    Erikson, Li H., Herdman, Liv, Flanary, Chris, Engelstad, Anita C., Pusuluri, Prasad, Barnard, Patrick L., Storlazzi, Curt D., Beck, Michael, Reguero, Borja G., and Parker, Kai A., 2022, Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024): U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: CMIP6 Waves
    Hydrodynamic Model (source 3 of 4)
    Grossman, Eric E., Tehranirad, Babak, Stevens, Andrew W., VanArendonk, Nathan R., Crosby, Sean, and Nederhoff, Kees, 2023, Salish Sea Hydrodynamic Model: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: Hydrodynamic Model
    ERA5 (source 4 of 4)
    Hersbach, Hans, Bell, Bill, Berrisford, Paul, Hirahara, Shoji, Horányi, András, Muñoz-Sabater, Joaquín, Nicolas, Julien, Peubey, Carole, Radu, Raluca, Schepers, Dinand, Simmons, Adrian, Soci, Cornel, Abdalla, Saleh, Abellan, Xavier, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Bechtold, Peter, Biavati, Gionata, Bidlot, Jean, Bonavita, Massimo, Chiara, Giovanna De, Dahlgren, Per, Dee, Dick, Diamantakis, Michail, Dragani, Rossana, Flemming, Johannes, Forbes, Richard, Fuentes, Manuel, Geer, Alan, Haimberger, Leo, Healy, Sean, Hogan, Robin J., Hólm, Elías, Janisková, Marta, Keeley, Sarah, Laloyaux, Patrick, Lopez, Philippe, Lupu, Cristina, Radnoti, Gabor, Rosnay, Patricia de, Rozum, Iryna, Vamborg, Freja, Villaume, Sebastien, and Thépaut, Jean-Noël, 2018, ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: Reanalysis Forcing Data
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 01-Jan-2024 (process 1 of 3)
    Regional scale data were created for the full Puget Sound region using a hydrodynamic, wave, and hydrologic model. All regional scale models were run for 3 periods: reanalysis (1940-2023), historic CMIP6 (1950–2015) and future CMIP6(2015-2050). Forcing for the reanalysis period was provided by the ERA5 dataset and by 7 CMIP6 models for the historic and future periods (HighResMIP, Haarsma and others, 2016). The Hydrodynamic Model (delft3d-FM) was used for simulating regional water levels and is detailed in Grossman and others, 2023. Waves were modelled using a SWAN lookup table with linear swell propagation as detailed in Crosby and others, 2023. In addition to winds, swell was added through the Strait of Juan de Fuca via modeled CMIP6 Waves and from data provided by ERA5. Hydrology was provided by a county level hydrological model detailed in Buitink and others, 2025. The hydrodynamic and wave models were additionally run for a variety of SLR positions (0, 25, 50, 100, 150, 200, 300 cm). Outputs were saved as station output across the full Puget Sound region, in the nearshore for wave and water level data and at a variety of elevation contours for hydrologic data. Data sources used in this process:
    • ERA5
    • Hydrodynamic Model
    • CMIP6 Waves
    Date: 01-Jan-2025 (process 2 of 3)
    A SFINCS model was developed following the methodology detailed in Nederhoff and others, 2025. The model was built using topographic/bathymetry data from a DEM and covered the full extent of Pierce County. Models were forced with continuous oceanographic and hydrologic forcing (provided by the regional model) for 2 periods: a reanalysis period and future projection period. The reanalysis period was used for model validation and the projection period was used for producing CoSMoS hazard outputs. For the future projection period, the model was run continuously for 100 years at 6 SLR scenarios. Outputs of maximum water levels were saved for each simulation year. Data sources used in this process:
    • DEM
    Date: 01-Jul-2025 (process 3 of 3)
    All simulation data were downloaded from the USGS Advanced Research Computing Center’s Hovenweep Supercomputer (Falgout and others, 2024) to be post-processed. For each of the 6 SLR scenarios, the 1-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year return period hazard level was derived using empirical return intervals from the 100-year time series of annual max water levels. Output data (flood depth, water elevation, maximum depth x velocity, flood extent) were derived from the occurrence of the water level extreme. Flood depth and extent were post-processed with an attenuated bathtub to remove edge effects and therefore do not match the spatial extent of the other products. Velocity hazards were smoothed with a gaussian kernel smoother with a standard deviation of 6 cells and then binned to hazard levels. Final Shapefiles were created and bundled by county (Velocity_hazard_projections-Pierce.zip). Data are organized by storm scenario (’RP’) and SLR magnitude.
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Haarsma, R.J., Roberts, M.J., Vidale, P.L., Senior, C.A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., Hardenberg, J. von, Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M.S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and Storch, J.S. von, 2016, High resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Haarsma, R.J., Roberts, M.J., Vidale, P.L., Senior, C.A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N.S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J. J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M.S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.S., 2016, High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6: Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 9, p. 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
    Grossman, Eric E., Tehranirad, Babak, Nederhoff, Kees, Crosby, Sean C., Stevens, Andrew W., Nathan R. Van Arendonk, Nowacki, Daniel J., Erikson, Li H., and Barnard, Patrick L., 2023, Modeling Extreme Water Levels in the Salish Sea: The Importance of Including Remote Sea Level Anomalies for Application in Hydrodynamic Simulations.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Grossman, E. E., Tehranirad, B., Nederhoff, C. M., Crosby, S. C., Stevens, A. W., Van Arendonk, N. R., Nowacki D. J., Erikson, L. H., and Barnard, P. L. (2023). Modeling Extreme Water Levels in the Salish Sea: The Importance of Including Remote Sea Level Anomalies for Application in Hydrodynamic Simulations. Water, 15(23), 4167.
    Falgout, J.T., Gordon, J., Williams, B., and Davis, M.J., 2024, USGS Advanced Research Computing, USGS Denali Supercomputer..

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Falgout, J.T., Gordon J., Williams B., Davis M. J., USGS Advanced Research Computing, USGS Denali Supercomputer: U.S. Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PSW367
    Crosby, Sean C., Nederhoff, Kees, VanArendonk, Nathan R., and Grossman, Eric E., 2023, Efficient modeling of wave generation and propagation in a semi-enclosed estuary.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Crosby, S. C., Nederhoff, K., VanArendonk, N.R., and Grossman, E.E., 2023, Efficient modeling of wave generation and propagation in a semi-enclosed estuary: Ocean Modeling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102231.
    Nederhoff, Kees, Parker, Kai, and Grossman, Eric E., 2025, Beyond the 100-Year Flood: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for King and Pierce Counties under Future Climate Scenarios.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Nederhoff, K., Parker, K., and Grossman, E., 2025, Beyond the 100-Year Flood: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for King and Pierce Counties under Future Climate Scenarios: EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4909.
    Buitink, Joost, Dalmijn, Brendan, Parker, Kai, and Nederhoff, Kees, 2025, Wetter Winters, Drier Summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Buitink, J., Dalmijn, B., Parker, K.A., Nederhoff, K. and Grossman, E., 2025, Wetter Winters, Drier Summers: Quantifying the change in hydrological response around the Puget Sound area using the wflow_sbm hydrological model and CMIP6 projections: EarthArXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.31223/X58R0G.

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    Attribute values are model-derived flooding extents due to plausible sea-level rise and future storm conditions and therefore cannot be validated against observations. The projections were generated using the latest downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    Data are concurrent with topobathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) locations.
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    Model-derived data are accurate within published uncertainty bounds, indicative of total uncertainty from elevation data sources and model processes. See Nederhoff and others, 2025 for additional information on vertical accuracy and uncertainty layer development.
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    Dataset is considered complete for the information presented.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have undergone quality checks and meet standards.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints No access constraints
Use_Constraints USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. These data are marked with a Creative Common CC0 1.0 Universal License. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator of the dataset and in products derived from these data. This information is not intended for navigation purposes.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - CMGDS
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? These data are available in shapefile format contained in a single zip file with filenames of “Velocity_hazard_projections-Pierce.zip” accompanied by CSDGM FGDC-compliant metadata.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
  4. How can I download or order the data?
    • Availability in digital form:
      Data format: Zip file contains shapefiles for Pierce County, WA in format shapefile Size: 41.7
      Network links: https://doi.org/10.5066/P14U7EK2
    • Cost to order the data: None.

  5. What hardware or software do I need in order to use the data set?
    These data can be viewed with any spatial analysis software (for example, ArcGIS, QGIS, and so on)

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 26-Nov-2025
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, CA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/pcmsc/DataReleases/CMGDS_DR_tool/DR_P14U7EK2/Velocity_hazard_proj_Pierce_metadata.faq.html>
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