Patrick W. Limber
Patrick L. Barnard
2017
CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise
Cliff retreat projections in Google Earth KMZ and ESRI shapefile (SHP) formats
data release
DOI:10.5066/F7T151Q4
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California
U.S. Geological Survey
https://doi.org/10.5066/F7T151Q4
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57f4234de4b0bc0bec033f90
Patrick L Barnard
Li H Erikson
Amy C Foxgrover
Patrick W Limber
Andrea C O'Neill
Sean Vitousek
2018
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
Digital
data release
doi:10.5066/F7T151Q4
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California
U.S. Geological Survey
https://doi.org/10.5066/F7T151Q4
This dataset contains projections of coastal cliff-retreat rates and positions for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Present-day cliff-edge positions used as the baseline for projections are also included. Projections were made using numerical and statistical models based on field observations such as historical cliff retreat rate, nearshore slope, coastal cliff height, and mean annual wave power, as part of Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) v.3.0 Phase 2 in Southern California.
Details: Cliff-retreat position projections and associated uncertainties are for scenarios of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, and 5 meters of SLR. Projections were made at CoSMoS cross-shore transects (CST) spaced 100 m alongshore using a baseline sea-cliff edge from 2010 (included in the dataset). Within each zip file, there are two separate datasets available: one that ignores coastal armoring, such as seawalls and revetments, and allows the cliff to retreat unimpeded (“Do Not Hold the Line”); and another that assumes that current coastal armoring will be maintained and 100% effective at stopping future cliff erosion ("Hold the Line").
Eight numerical models synthesized from literature (Trenhaile, 2000; Walkden and Hall, 2005; Trenhaile, 2009; Trenhaile, 2011; Ruggiero and others, 2011; Hackney and others, 2013) were used to make projections. All models relate breaking-wave height and period to cliff rock or unconsolidated sediment erosion. Models range in complexity from 2-D models in which the entire profile evolves, from below water to the cliff edge, to simple 1-D empirical or statistical models in which only the cliff edge evolves as a function of wave impact intensity and frequency. The projections are a robust average of all models, and the uncertainties are proportional to 1) underlying uncertainties in the model input data, such as historical cliff retreat rates, and 2) the differences between individual model forecasts at each CST so that uncertainty is larger when the models do not agree. As sea level rises, waves break closer to the sea cliff, more wave energy impacts the cliffs, cliff erosion rates accelerate. Model behavior also includes wave run-up (Stockdon and others, 2006), wave set-up that raises the water level during big-wave events, and tidal levels.
The more complex 2-D models were run on idealized cliff profiles extending from about 10 m water depth to 1 kilometer inland from the cliff edge. Profiles were extracted by overlaying the cross-shore transects on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) covering the Southern California study area. For all models, the presence of a beach was recorded (yes or no) for all transects using aerial photography, and the cliff toe elevation (or beach/cliff junction) was digitized from the DEM profiles. Using historic cliff edge retreat rates by Hapke and Reid (2007), unknown coefficients within the cliff-profile models were calibrated using a Monte Carlo simulation (in other words, coefficients were tuned until the modeled mean retreat rate equaled the observed mean retreat rate for a given transect).
Uncertainty was tallied using a root mean squared error (RMSE) approach. The RMSE represents cumulative uncertainty from multiple sources and assumes that different sources of error will, at times, cancel each other out. It is therefore not a 'worst-case uncertainty' (in other words, a straight sum of errors) but instead an average uncertainty. Total RMSE increased with SLR rate and varied between +/- 2-3 m to a maximum of +/- 50 m for the extreme 5 m SLR scenario.
For more information on model details, data sources, and integration with other parts of the CoSMoS framework, see CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods (available at https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf).
These data are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, students, and the general public. These data can be used with geographic information systems or other software to identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability. These data are not intended to be used for navigation.
This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States. For information on data sources and details on methodology, see https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/
20151210
20170810
oldest dataset used through publication date
As needed
-120.48706054569
-117.01538085833
34.51524902452
32.472325899539
USGS Metadata Identifier
USGS:57f4234de4b0bc0bec033f90
Data Categories for Marine Planning
Physical Habitats and Geomorphology
Global Change Master Directory (GCMD)
Hazards Planning
Ocean Waves
Erosion
Sea Level Rise
Extreme Weather
USGS Thesaurus
Climate Change
Storms
Sea-level Change
ISO 19115 Topic Category
Oceans
ClimatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) keywords
sea level change
waves
coastal erosion
Geographic Names Information System
Santa Barbara County
Ventura County
Los Angeles County
Orange County
San Diego County
State of California
None
Southern California
Southern California Bight
none
USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
Patrick W. Limber
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
mailing and physical
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz
California
95060-5792
USA
831-460-7548
831-427-4748
plimber@usgs.gov
Hackney, C.
Darby, S. E.
Leyland, J.
2013
Modelling the response of soft cliffs to climate change: A statistical, process-response model using accumulated excess energy
Hackney, C., Darby, S. E., and Leyland, J., 2013, Modelling the response of soft cliffs to climate change: A statistical, process-response model using accumulated excess energy, Geomorphology, 187, 108-121.
Hapke, C.
Reid, D.
2007
National Assessment of Shoreline Change, Part 4: Historical Coastal Cliff Retreat along the California Coast
Hapke, C.J., and Reid, D., 2007, National Assessment of Shoreline Change, Part 4: Historical Coastal Cliff Retreat along the California Coast: U.S. Geological Survey Open-file Report 2007-1133. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1133/
Ruggiero, P.
Komar, P. D.
McDougal, W. G.
Marra, J. J.
Beach, R. A.
2001
Wave runup, extreme water levels and the erosion of properties backing beaches
Ruggiero, P., Komar, P. D., McDougal, W. G., Marra, J. J., and Beach, R. A. (2001), Wave runup, extreme water levels and the erosion of properties backing beaches. Journal of Coastal Research, 407-419.
Stockdon, H.
Holman, R. A.
Howd, P.A.
Sallenger Jr., J. A.
2006
Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup
Stockdon, H.F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr., A. J., 2006, Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coastal Engineering, Volume 53, Issue 7, Pages 573-588, ISSN 0378-3839. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005.
Trenhaile, A. S.
2000
Modeling the development of wave-cut shore platforms
Trenhaile, A. S., 2000, Modeling the development of wave-cut shore platforms, Marine Geology, Volume 166, Issues 1-4, Pages 163-178, ISSN 0025-3227. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(00)00013-X.
Trenhaile, A. S.
2009
Modeling the erosion of cohesive clay coasts
Trenhaile, A. S., 2009, Modeling the erosion of cohesive clay coasts, Coastal Engineering, Volume 56, Issue 1, Pages 59-72, ISSN 0378-3839. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.07.001.
Trenhaile, A. S.
2011
Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height
Trenhaile, A. S., 2011, Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height, Climatic Change, Volume 109, Issues 3-4, Pages 599-615, ISSN 0165-0009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0035-7.
Walkden, M. J. A.
Hall, J. W.
2005
A predictive Mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores
Walkden, M. J. A., and Hall, J.W., 2005, A predictive Mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores, Coastal Engineering, Volume 52, Issue 6, Pages 535-563, ISSN 0378-3839. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.02.005.
Attribute values are estimates of sea-cliff retreat rate due to plausible future sea-level rise scenarios and therefore cannot be cross-checked with observations, because observations do not exist. The projections were generated using up-to-date statistical and numerical methods and are in line with projections made by previous researchers. Uncertainty bands are included that take into account the positional accuracy of the geospatial data used to calibrate the numerical models, statistical agreement between different models used to generate the projections, and variations of the projections caused by varying assumptions (in other words, a sensitivity analysis).
Data have undergone QA/QC and fall within expected/reasonable ranges.
Data set is considered complete. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details.
Data are concurrent with specified transect locations.
N/A
Patrick Barnard
Li Erikson
Amy Foxgrover
Andrea O'Neill
Sean Vitousek
Liv Herdman
Jonathan Warrick
2017
CoSMoS_3.0_Phase_2_Southern_California_Bight:_Summary_of_data_and_methods
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California
U.S. Geological Survey
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f1d4f3e4b0bc0bebfee139?name=CoSMoS_SoCalv3_Phase2_summary_of_methods.pdf
online
2017
publication date
Summary of methods
Complete explanation of data and methodology used in model framework
Built numerical models of sea-cliff erosion and retreat rates due to wave impacts and sea-level rise
20141015
Overlaid transects on digital elevation model (DEM) to find sea-cliff height, mean shore-platform slope, mean cliff-face slope, cliff-toe elevation, and mean intertidal slope for each cross-shore transect; accessed oblique photographs from the California Coastal Records Project (http://www.californiacoastline.org/) to record the presence of a beach for each transect; used the USGS National Shoreline Assessment database to assign a long-term (about 70 years) sea-cliff retreat rate to each transect.
20150201
Ran 2-D numerical models of cliff behavior on each idealized transect; performed >50,000 model runs to calibrate unknown model coefficients; estimated model coefficients by matching modeled long-term cliff retreat to observed long-term cliff retreat and/or predicting them using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) trained using physical, oceanographic, and geomorphic characteristics from each transect.
20150601
Ran calibrated 2-D cliff behavior models on idealized transects for different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and used an ANN to parse model results and draw statistical relationships between the physical properties of each transect (for example, sea cliff height, shore platform slope), historical cliff behavior, and the predicted cliff behavior for each SLR scenario; ran simpler 1-D models at each transect as a Monte Carlo ensemble to include uncertainty.
20150801
Metadata was modified to add or correct the Larger_Work section, and to correct the link(s) to the Methods Summary pdf so that it points to the new location of the file. No data information was changed.
20180814
Susan A Cochran
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Geologist
mailing and physical
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz
CA
95060-5792
USA
(831) 460-7545
scochran@usgs.gov
Edited metadata to add keywords section with USGS persistent identifier as theme keyword. No data were changed.
20201019
U.S. Geological Survey
VeeAnn A. Cross
Marine Geologist
Mailing and Physical
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543-1598
508-548-8700 x2251
508-457-2310
vatnipp@usgs.gov
Performed minor edits to the metadata to correct typos. No data were changed
20211014
U.S. Geological Survey
Susan A. Cochran
Geologist
Mailing and Physical
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz
CA
95060
831-460-7545
scochran@usgs.gov
Vector
Universal Transverse Mercator
11
0.999600
-100.000000
0.000000
500000.000000
0.000000
row and column
2.000000
2.000000
meters
North American Datum 1983
Geodetic Reference System 80
6378137.000000
298.257222
NAVD88
2.0
meters
Implicit coordinate
CoSMoS_v3Phase2_coastal_cliff_projections_KMZ
Coastal cliff erosion rates and positions due to erosion caused by wave impacts in different sea-level rise scenarios and management conditions
originators at United States Geolgical Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Transect ID
ID number assigned by producer and initial position
producer defined
sequential whole numbers
Historical cliff retreat rate (m/yr)
Historical cliff retreat rates, in meters per year
producer defined
Historical cliff retreat rate (m/yr)
Historical cliff retreat rates, in meters per year
producer defined
Historical cliff retreat rate uncertainty (m/yr)
Uncertainty in historical cliff retreat rates, in meters per year
producer defined
Historical cliff retreat rate uncertainty (m/yr)
Uncertainty in historical cliff retreat rates, in meters per year
producer defined
Cliff retreat rate (m/yr), X.XX m SLR
Projected cliff retreat rates, in meters per year, in different sea-level-rise scenarios (X.XX m SLR)
producer defined
Cliff retreat rate (m/yr), X.XX m SLR
Projected cliff retreat rate, in meters per year, in different sea-level-rise scenarios (X.XX m SLR) and "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
producer defined
Cliff position projections
Projected long-term coastal cliff positions in different sea-level-rise scenarios
producer defined
Name
Coastal cliff position at X meters of sea-level rise and "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
producer defined
Cliff position projection uncertainty
Uncertainty in projected long-term coastal cliff positions in different sea-level-rise scenarios
producer defined
Name
Uncertainty in projected coastal cliff position at X meters of sea-level rise and "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
producer defined
CoSMoS_v3Phase2_coastal_cliff_projections_SHP
Coastal cliff erosion rates and positions due to erosion caused by wave impacts in different sea-level rise scenarios
originators at United States Geolgical Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CliffEdge_projections_(NO)HoldTheLine
Projected long-term coastal cliff positions in different sea-level-rise scenarios
producer defined
Scenario
Coastal cliff position at X.XX meters of sea-level rise for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
producer defined
CliffEdge_projection_uncertainty_(NO)HoldTheLine
Uncertainty in projected long-term coastal cliff positions in different sea-level-rise scenarios
producer defined
Scenario
Uncertainty in projected coastal cliff position at X.XX meters of sea-level rise for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
producer defined
U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
mailing and physical
Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
Denver
CO
80225
USA
1-888-275-8747
sciencebase@usgs.gov
Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
KMZ
Google Earth Pro (version 7.0, Google, 2015)
Features are in KMZ format and are projected in UTM Zone 11 coordinates, with horizontal datum NAD83 and vertical datum NAVD88.
The .zip file includes KMZ files, as well as associated files and the XML (.xml) version of the metadata
WinZip
2
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f4234de4b0bc0bec033f90?name=CoSMoS_v3_Phase2_coastal_cliff_retreat_projections_KMZ.zip
Data can be downloaded via the World Wide Web (WWW)
none
SHP
ArcGIS 10.2.2
Features are shapefile formats and are projected in UTM Zone 11 coordinates, with horizontal datum NAD83 (NSRS2007) and vertical datum NAVD88.
The .zip file includes shapefiles, as well as associated files and the XML (.xml) version of the metadata.
WinZip
0.24
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/57f4234de4b0bc0bec033f90?name=CoSMoS_v3_Phase2_coastal_cliff_retreat_projections_SHP.zip
Data can be downloaded via the World Wide Web (WWW)
none
20211014
Patrick W. Limber
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Research Geologist
mailing and physical
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz
California
95060-5792
USA
831-460-7548
831-427-4748
plimber@usgs.gov
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
FGDC-STD-001-1998