Mendocino County: CoSMoS 3.2 Northern California projected flood hazards

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
Mendocino County: CoSMoS 3.2 Northern California projected flood hazards
Abstract:
These data contain geographic extents of projected coastal flooding, low-lying vulnerable areas, and maximum/minimum flood potential (flood uncertainty) associated with the storm and sea-level condition indicated.
Supplemental_Information:
This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States. The Coastal Storm Modeling system uses several tiers of numerical models to make detailed predictions (meter-scale) of flooding and erosion over large geographic scales. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pcmsc/science/coastal-storm-modeling-system-cosmos
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Barnard, Patrick L., Erikson, Li H., Foxgrover, Amy C., Nederhoff, Kees, O'Neill, Andrea C., Thomas, Jennifer A., and Sarfraz, Ayesha, 20251215, Mendocino County: CoSMoS 3.2 Northern California projected flood hazards: data release DOI:10.5066/P9048D1S, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Barnard, Patrick L., Erikson, Li H., Foxgrover, Amy C., Limber, Patrick W., Nederhoff, Kees, O'Neill, Andrea C., Thomas, Jennifer A., Vitousek, Sean F., and Sarfraz, Ayesha, 2022, Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for northern California 3.2: data release DOI:10.5066/P9048D1S, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -124.07495006
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -123.53584631
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 40.00367439
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 38.71390778
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Calendar_Date: 2025
    Currentness_Reference:
    year of publication
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Flood hazard projection data in shapefile formats
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Vector data set.
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Grid_Coordinate_System_Name: Universal Transverse Mercator
      Universal_Transverse_Mercator:
      UTM_Zone_Number: 10
      Transverse_Mercator:
      Scale_Factor_at_Central_Meridian: 0.999600
      Longitude_of_Central_Meridian: -100.000000
      Latitude_of_Projection_Origin: 0.000000
      False_Easting: 500000.000000
      False_Northing: 0.000000
      Planar coordinates are encoded using row and column
      Abscissae (x-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 2.000000
      Ordinates (y-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 2.000000
      Planar coordinates are specified in meters
      The horizontal datum used is North American Datum 1983 (NSRS2007).
      The ellipsoid used is Geodetic Reference System 80.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.000000.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257222.
      Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition:
      Depth_System_Definition:
      Depth_Datum_Name: NAVD88
      Depth_Resolution: 2.0
      Depth_Distance_Units: meters
      Depth_Encoding_Method: Implicit coordinate
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    CoSMoS Northern California 3.2: hazard projections for Mendocino County
    CoSMoS projections (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    Flood projection for given sea-level (SLR) value and storm condition (no storm, 1-year storm, 20-year storm and 100-year storm), low-lying vulnerable areas, and maximum/minimum flood potential (flood uncertainty)
    area of inundation (Source: model derived) geographic extent of projected coastal flooding and potential low-lying vulnerable areas associated with sea-level rise and storm conditions indicated
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    Zip files contain projected flood hazard information for stated storm scenario condition for Mendocino County. Projected data are labeled by scenario indicating a given SLR (SLRs of 0 m, 0.25 m, 0.5 m, 0.75 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m, 2.5 m, 3.0 m, and 5.0 m) and storm condition (no-storm, 1-year storm, 20-year storm, and 100-year storm).
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
    The entity and attribute information were generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the data set. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information.

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Patrick L. Barnard
    • Li H. Erikson
    • Amy C. Foxgrover
    • Kees Nederhoff
    • Andrea C. O'Neill
    • Jennifer A. Thomas
    • Ayesha Sarfraz
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
    This project was funded by U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program. Resources supporting this work were provided by the NASA High-End Computing (HEC) Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division at Ames Research Center, and USGS Advanced Research Computing (Falgout and others, 2024).
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA
    US

    831-460-4747 (voice)
    831-427-4748 (FAX)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, technical users, students, and the general public. These data can be used with geographic information systems or other software to identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability. These data are not intended to be used for navigation.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    DEM (source 1 of 4)
    U.S. Geological Survey, 2022, Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Project - Topobathymetric Digital Elevation Model (TBDEM) for Northern California: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: Topographic and bathymetry elevation data used in models
    VLM (source 2 of 4)
    Shirzaei, M., 2022, Vertical Land Motion (VLM) along California coast: Virginia Tech, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    Vertical land motion rates for California to include in flood potential
    tier 2 sub-regional models (source 3 of 4)
    O'Neill, A.C., Thomas, J.A., Erikson, L.H., and Barnard, P.L., 2023, CoSMoS 3.2 Northern California sub-regional tier 2 FLOW-WAVE model input files: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    tier 2 simulations cover the Northern California region and provide boundary conditions to higher-resolution XBeach models
    tier 3 XBeach models (source 4 of 4)
    O'Neill, A.C., Nederhoff, K., Erikson, L.H., Thomas, J.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2024, CoSMoS 3.2 Northern California sub-regional tier 3 2D XBeach model input files: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution: tier 3 simulations resulting in final hazards data projections
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 05-Feb-2025 (process 1 of 3)
    After setting up tier 3 XBeach models for all storm and sea-level conditions (sea-level rise, SLR) used in tier 2 sub-regional models and completing all simulations on high performance computing resources, all simulation data were downloaded and post-processed to extract maximum water levels at each grid point over the entire simulation, in addition to the associated duration of the water over the simulation. Significant wave height and velocity were similarly processed from tier 2 sub-regional models. For each output variable, maximum values for all contributing events in a storm scenario are composited to show the total maximum value for the scenario at each grid point from all simulations (for example, maximum output for all 100-year storm events are composited to a single 100-year scenario data layer). See O'Neill and others (2018, 2024) for information on CoSMoS framework, set up for simulations, and processing. Maximum output for water elevations were depth-differenced to the DEM to separate low-lying vulnerable areas from contiguous coastal flooding. Other output data (water elevation, flood depth, maximum current velocities, maximum wave heights) were clipped to final flood hazard extent. Flood potential projections (maximum and minimum flood uncertainty) were derived by adding/subtracting estimated model error, DEM uncertainty, and projected VLM for a given SLR to the respective water elevation surface. See O'Neill and others (2018) for a full discussion. Data sources used in this process:
    • tier 3 XBeach models
    • tier 2 sub-regional models
    • DEM
    • VLM
    Data sources produced in this process:
    • final hazards projections
    Date: 15-Aug-2025 (process 2 of 3)
    Final hazard projections are labeled by scenario inidcating a given sea-level change (0 m, 0.25 m, 0.5 m, 0.75 m, 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m, 2.5 m, 3.0 m, and 5.0 m) and storm condition (no-storm, 1-year storm, 20-year storm, and 100-year storm). Data are packaged in zip files by storm scenario.
    Date: 26-Mar-2026 (process 3 of 3)
    The metadata title was modified to move the location to the beginning of the title. This was done to meet new system requirements as ScienceBase is migrated to a new platform, and to keep datasets grouped by location on the new data release landing page. The associated Network Resource Links were updated to reflect these changes to the data release landing page. (20260326). Person who carried out this activity:
    Manda Au
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Data Management Specialist
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-460-7575 (voice)
    mau@usgs.gov
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    O'Neill, A.C., Erikson, L.H., Barnard, P.L., Limber, P.W., Vitousek, S., Warrick, J, Foxgrover, A.C., and Lovering, J.L., 2018, Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoS Model.

    Other_Citation_Details:
    O'Neill, A.C., Erikson, L.H., Barnard, P.L., Limber, P.W., Vitousek, S., Warrick, J.A., Foxgrover, A.C., Lovering, J., 2018, Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoS Model: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 6, art. 59, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020059.
    O'Neill, A.C., Nederhoff, K., Erikson, L.H., Thomas, J.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2024, A Dataset of Two-Dimensional XBeach Model Set-Up Files for Northern California.

    Other_Citation_Details:
    O'Neill, A.C., Nederhoff, K., Erikson, L.H., Thomas, J.A., Barnard, P.L., 2024, A Dataset of Two-Dimensional XBeach Model Set-Up Files for Northern California: Data, vol. 9, art. 118, https://doi.org/10.3390/data9100118.
    Falgout, J.T., Gordon, J., Williams, B., and Davis, M.J., 2024, USGS Denali Supercomputer: U.S. Geological Survey.

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Falgout, Jeff T, Janice Gordon, Brad Williams, Matthew J. Davis, 2024, USGS Advanced Research Computing, USGS Denali Supercomputer: U.S. Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PSW367. (accessed 01 December 2024)

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    Attribute values are model-derived extents of flood projections, low-lying vulnerable areas, and maximum/minimum flood potential (flood uncertainty) due to plausible sea-level rise and future storm conditions and therefore cannot be validated against observations. The projections were generated using the latest downscaled climate projections for Northern California and calibrated hydrodynamic models. See O'Neill and others (2018, 2024) for more information.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    Data are concurrent with topobathymetric DEM locations.
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    There has not been a formal accuracy assessment of vertical position in this dataset and/or is not applicable.
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    Dataset is considered complete for the information presented (as described in the abstract) and will be updated as necessary as improvements are developed. Users are advised to read the metadata record and cited references carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have undergone quality checks and meet standards.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints No access constraints
Use_Constraints USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. These data are marked with a Creative Common CC0 1.0 Universal License. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO
    USA

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? Data are available as zip files with a filename CoSMoS_NorthernCalifornina3-2_flood_hazards_**storm**_in_MendocinoCounty.ZIP, where **storm** indicates storm condition. Files contain flood-hazard projections for sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios (W) indicated, for example SLR100_W020 are outputs for SLR of 1.0 m and a 20-year storm. Storm scenarios include no storm, 1-year storm, 20-year storm, and a 100-year storm.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Flooded areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data as is for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information. The suggestions and illustrations included in these data are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
  4. How can I download or order the data?

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 26-Mar-2026
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, CA
US

831-460-4747 (voice)
831-427-4748 (FAX)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/pcmsc/DataReleases/ScienceBase/DR_P9048D1S/CoSMoS_NorthernCalifornia3-2_flood_hazards_in_MendocinoCounty_metadata.faq.html>
Generated by mp version 2.9.51 on Fri Apr 10 16:37:33 2026