Metadata: Identification_Information: Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Patrick W. Limber Originator: Patrick L. Barnard Originator: Andrea C. O'Neill Originator: Amy C. Foxgrover Publication_Date: 20221205 Title: Northern California 3.2 projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Coastal cliff retreat projections in shapefiles Series_Information: Series_Name: data release Issue_Identification: DOI:10.5066/P9048D1S Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, California Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9048D1S Online_Linkage: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/636d7473d34ed907bf6ba1fc Larger_Work_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Patrick L. Barnard Originator: Li H. Erikson Originator: Amy C. Foxgrover Originator: Patrick W. Limber Originator: Andrea C. O'Neill Originator: Jennifer A. Thomas Originator: Sean F. Vitousek Publication_Date: 2022 Title: Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for northern California 3.2 Edition: version 1b Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: modeling results presented in various formats Series_Information: Series_Name: data release Issue_Identification: DOI:10.5066/P9048D1S Publication_Information: Publication_Place: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9048D1S Description: Abstract: This dataset contains projections of coastal cliff retreat and associated uncertainty across Northern California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR) to include 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300, and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100 and cover coastline from the Golden Gate Bridge to the California-Oregon state border. Present-day cliff-edge positions used as the baseline for projections are also included. Projections were made using numerical models and field observations such as historical cliff retreat rate, nearshore slope, coastal cliff height, and mean annual wave power, as part of Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). See cited references and methods for more detail. Purpose: These data provide an estimate of potential coastal cliff retreat and erosion in response to sea-level rise during the 21st century, to help identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability. Uncertainty should be included in any assessment or analysis. Data are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, and students. These data can be used with geographic information systems or other software to help identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability. These data are not intended to be used for navigation. Supplemental_Information: This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2022 Currentness_Reference: year of publication Status: Progress: Complete Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: None planned Spatial_Domain: Bounding_Coordinates: West_Bounding_Coordinate: -124.4448 East_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.4774 North_Bounding_Coordinate: 41.9985 South_Bounding_Coordinate: 37.8921 Keywords: Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: USGS Metadata Identifier Theme_Keyword: USGS:636d7473d34ed907bf6ba1fc Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: Data Categories for Marine Planning Theme_Keyword: Physical Habitats and Geomorphology Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Theme_Keyword: Hazards Planning Theme_Keyword: Ocean Waves Theme_Keyword: Erosion Theme_Keyword: Sea Level Rise Theme_Keyword: Extreme Weather Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: USGS Thesaurus Theme_Keyword: Climate Change Theme_Keyword: Storms Theme_Keyword: mathematical modeling Theme_Keyword: effects of climate change Theme_Keyword: earth sciences Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: ISO 19115 Topic Category Theme_Keyword: Oceans Theme_Keyword: ClimatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) keywords Theme_Keyword: sea level change Theme_Keyword: waves Theme_Keyword: coastal erosion Theme: Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: None Theme_Keyword: U.S. Geological Survey Theme_Keyword: USGS Theme_Keyword: Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program Theme_Keyword: CMHRP Theme_Keyword: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Theme_Keyword: PCMSC Place: Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: Geographic Names Information System Place_Keyword: State of California Place: Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: None Place_Keyword: Northern California Place_Keyword: Northern California Coast Access_Constraints: none Use_Constraints: USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data. Point_of_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Contact_Person: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing and physical Address: 2885 Mission Street City: Santa Cruz State_or_Province: California Postal_Code: 95060-5792 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: 831-427-4747 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: pcmsc_data@usgs.gov Cross_Reference: Citation_Information: Originator: Limber, P.W. Originator: Barnard, P.L. Originator: Vitousek, S. Originator: Erikson, L.H. Publication_Date: 2018 Title: A model ensemble for projecting multi-decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century Other_Citation_Details: Limber, P.W., Barnard, P.L., Vitousek, S., and Erikson, L.H, 2018, A model ensemble for projecting multi-decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century: Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface, v. 123, p.1566-1589, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004401. Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004401 Data_Quality_Information: Attribute_Accuracy: Attribute_Accuracy_Report: Attribute values are estimates of cliff retreat and uncertainty due to plausible future sea-level rise scenarios in the future and therefore cannot be cross-checked with observations, because observations do not exist. The projections were generated using established numerical methods and are in line with previous work by researchers. While the latest cliff edge data was used in the modeling, the general lack of extensive historical data and difficulty in identifying active cliff edges in many locations (for example, obscured by vegetation, or topographic slope showing no inflection) led to high uncertainty in some areas. Uncertainty bands derived from the ensemble numerical models take into account the positional accuracy of the geospatial data used to calibrate the numerical models, statistical agreement between different models used to generate the projections, and variations of the projections caused by varying initial conditions (a sensitivity analysis). Including uncertainty is recommended for use in any analysis. Logical_Consistency_Report: Data have undergone QA/QC and fall within expected/reasonable ranges. Completeness_Report: These geospatial projections are complete. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record and references carefully for additional details. Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy: Horizontal_Positional_Accuracy_Report: A formal accuracy assessment of the projections was conducted for each model output location. The horizontal model accuracy (or uncertainty) for each model output point is included within this geospatial dataset and was determined at the 95 percent confidence level. Vertical_Positional_Accuracy: Vertical_Positional_Accuracy_Report: N/A Lineage: Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: U.S. Geological Survey Publication_Date: 2017 Title: 2016 USGS west coast lidar DEM (WA, OR, CA) Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: NOAA Digital Coast Online_Linkage: https://coast.noaa.gov/htdata/raster2/elevation/West_Coast_El_Nino_DEM_2016_6260/ Type_of_Source_Media: online Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Range_of_Dates/Times: Beginning_Date: 20020101 Ending_Date: 20160528 Source_Currentness_Reference: data collection dates Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Lidar Source_Contribution: A continuous sea cliff edge was digitized from the 2002, 2010, and 2016 lidar DEM. The cliff edge was then used 1) to calculate long-term cliff retreat rates and 2) as the baseline from which future projections of cliff retreat were made. Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Hapke, C. Originator: Reid, D. Originator: Borelli, M. Publication_Date: 2007 Title: The National Assessment of Shoreline Change; a GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1112/ Type_of_Source_Media: online Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Range_of_Dates/Times: Beginning_Date: 19290101 Ending_Date: 19500101 Source_Currentness_Reference: dates of valid data Source_Citation_Abbreviation: TSHEET Source_Contribution: Cliff edges were used to calculate historical long-term rates of cliff retreat Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: U.S. Geological Survey Publication_Date: 2020 Title: Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Project - Topobathymetric Digital Elevation Model (TBDEM) for Northern California Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://topotools.cr.usgs.gov/topobathy_viewer/ Type_of_Source_Media: online Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2020 Source_Currentness_Reference: Publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: DEM Source_Contribution: Topobathymetric Digital Elevation Model (TBDEM) for Northern California Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: California Coastal Commission Publication_Date: 2005 Title: California Coastal Armoring Database Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: California Coastal Commission Online_Linkage: https://gis.cnra.ca.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Ocean/CSMW_Coastal_Structures/MapServer/ Type_of_Source_Media: online Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2005 Source_Currentness_Reference: Publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: Armor database Source_Contribution: Database of coastal armoring locations across California Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Google Earth Publication_Date: 2021 Title: Aerial imagery for Northern California Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: Google Earth Online_Linkage: https://earth.google.com/ Type_of_Source_Media: online viewer Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Range_of_Dates/Times: Beginning_Date: 20050101 Ending_Date: 20210401 Source_Currentness_Reference: dates of valid data Source_Citation_Abbreviation: aerial imagery Source_Contribution: Recent aerial imagery to verify armoring locations Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: Foxgrover, A.C. Originator: Erikson, L.H. Originator: O'Neill, A.C. Publication_Date: 2022 Title: Northern California cross-shore transects for CoSMoS 3.2 Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9048D1S Type_of_Source_Media: online dataset Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2022 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: CSTs Source_Contribution: cross-short transects (CSTs) used throughout study region for model setup locations Source_Information: Source_Citation: Citation_Information: Originator: O'Neill, A.C. Originator: Erikson, L.H. Originator: Barnard, P.L. Publication_Date: 2022 Title: Nearshore total water level (TWL) proxies (2018-2100) for Northern California Publication_Information: Publication_Place: online Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Online_Linkage: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9048D1S Type_of_Source_Media: online dataset Source_Time_Period_of_Content: Time_Period_Information: Single_Date/Time: Calendar_Date: 2022 Source_Currentness_Reference: publication date Source_Citation_Abbreviation: nearshore wave forcing Source_Contribution: time series of nearshore wave impacts for projections Process_Step: Process_Description: All process steps match those outlined in Limber and others (2018); specific details for implementation in Northern California are included here. Historical sea cliff retreat rates were established using cliff edge positions from TSHEETS and Lidar datasets. In areas where sufficient data were present, all cliff edge data were used to calculate a linear regression rate. Where linear regression was not possible, end-point rates between TSHEET and the most recent lidar were used. In locations without reliable TSHEET data, end-point rates were determined between lidar datasets. Finally, for locations where no cliff edge data were available, rates from nearby transects or the nearest location with similar lithology were spatially averaged and assigned. In addition to the paucity of available data for many transects, the active cliff edge was obscured by vegetation or topographically indistinct in many locations, leading to generally higher uncertainty of cliff-top locations throughout the region. Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: TSHEETS Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: Lidar Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: CSTs Process_Date: 20201101 Source_Produced_Citation_Abbreviation: Historical rates Process_Step: Process_Description: Extracted cross-shore profiles, cliff toe elevations, and beach slopes from Lidar and DEM data. Verified armoring locations with current imagery. Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: Lidar Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: DEM Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: Armoring database Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: aerial imagery Process_Date: 20210405 Source_Produced_Citation_Abbreviation: cliff profile information Process_Step: Process_Description: Ran multi-model ensemble with nearshore wave forcing and various SLR scenarios to project future cliff positions. As described by Limber and others (2018), four ensemble members were used (Hackney, Trenhaile version 1, Trenhaile version 2, TWL models; see manuscript for more details); the Bruun model was not included for this region. Historical retreat rates, cliff toe elevation, beach slopes, and cliff height discussed above were used as inputs to the model ensemble. In much of Northern California, due to the limitations in existing data ensemble projections showed more spread compared to other locations with more observations; therefore, the weighted average used in much of Northern California was more tolerant of spread from individual ensemble members to provide better projection consistency. At headland and peninsula locations with significant projected retreat, projection lines may cross over each other. As this model does not make any assumption or statement on effectiveness of armoring or other structures, it was run in two scenarios providing end-member cases: 1) imposing projection limits where armoring features exist ("Hold the Line") and 2) letting projections proceed past armoring features ("Let it go"). Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: Historical rates Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: cliff profile information Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: nearshore wave forcing Process_Date: 20210830 Source_Produced_Citation_Abbreviation: model output Process_Step: Process_Description: As described in Limber and others (2018), model output and uncertainty were mapped. Visual and statistical QA/QC was performed to identify and correct data that did not meet quality control standards. Data was packaged for dissemination. Baseline cliff points used in the analysis are included for comparison (Cliff_0SLR_Baseline_pts). Projections of cliff retreat for given SLR (Cliff_ProjectionLines) and associated uncertainty (Cliff_Uncertainty) are available for both model cases (limiting projections in locations of existing coastal armoring/"Hold the Line", and letting projection proceed unhindered by armoring/"Let it Go"). All output files are zipped together. Source_Used_Citation_Abbreviation: model output Process_Date: 20220815 Process_Step: Process_Description: Internal USGS PID registered with PIR tool and updated the metdate for harvesting purposes. No data or metadata were changed. (scochran@usgs.gov) Process_Date: 20230209 Spatial_Data_Organization_Information: Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method: Vector Point_and_Vector_Object_Information: SDTS_Terms_Description: SDTS_Point_and_Vector_Object_Type: GT-polygon composed of chains Point_and_Vector_Object_Count: 28000 Spatial_Reference_Information: Horizontal_Coordinate_System_Definition: Geographic: Latitude_Resolution: 0.001 Longitude_Resolution: 0.001 Geographic_Coordinate_Units: Decimal degrees Geodetic_Model: Horizontal_Datum_Name: World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84) Ellipsoid_Name: WGS84 Semi-major_Axis: 6378137.0 Denominator_of_Flattening_Ratio: 298.257223563 Entity_and_Attribute_Information: Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: Northern California projections of cliff retreat for 21st century (2021-2100) due to sea-level rise Entity_Type_Definition: Shapefiles consist of cliff retreat projections (Cliff_ProjectionLines) caused by wave impacts in different named sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and different management options. Model case or management-case options illustrate projected retreat at impeded locations with existing armoring (HoldTheLine), or showing unimpeded retreat (LetItGo). Positions for SLRs of 25, 50, 75, 92, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300, and 500 cm are included. Entity_Type_Definition_Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Attribute: Attribute_Label: SLR_cm Attribute_Definition: amount of sea-level rise (SLR) for projected cliff retreat (25 cm or greater) Attribute_Definition_Source: producer defined Attribute_Domain_Values: Range_Domain: Range_Domain_Minimum: 25 Range_Domain_Maximum: 500 Attribute_Units_of_Measure: cm Attribute_Measurement_Resolution: 25 Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: Northern California cliff retreat uncertainty Entity_Type_Definition: Shapefiles consists of uncertainty range polygons (Cliff_Uncertainty) for corresponding projections of cliff retreat caused by wave impacts in different named sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and different management options. Model case or management-case options illustrate projected retreat at impeded locations with existing armoring (HoldTheLine), or showing unimpeded retreat (LetItGo). Positions for SLRs of 25, 50, 75, 92, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300, and 500 cm are included. Entity_Type_Definition_Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Attribute: Attribute_Label: SLR_cm Attribute_Definition: amount of SLR for given cliff retreat uncertainty (25 cm or greater) Attribute_Definition_Source: producer defined Attribute_Domain_Values: Range_Domain: Range_Domain_Minimum: 25 Range_Domain_Maximum: 500 Attribute_Units_of_Measure: cm Attribute_Measurement_Resolution: 25 Detailed_Description: Entity_Type: Entity_Type_Label: Northern California cliff baseline positions Entity_Type_Definition: Shapefile consists of points showing baseline cliff positions (Cliff_0SLR_Baseline_pts) for model transects Entity_Type_Definition_Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Attribute: Attribute_Label: Ln_ID Attribute_Definition: transect ID number for each model output location Attribute_Definition_Source: producer defined Attribute_Domain_Values: Range_Domain: Range_Domain_Minimum: 8071 Range_Domain_Maximum: 11589 Attribute_Units_of_Measure: NA Attribute_Measurement_Resolution: 1 Attribute: Attribute_Label: SLR_cm Attribute_Definition: SLR for baseline points, 0 cm Attribute_Definition_Source: producer defined Attribute_Domain_Values: Range_Domain: Range_Domain_Minimum: 0 Range_Domain_Maximum: 0 Attribute_Units_of_Measure: cm Attribute_Measurement_Resolution: 25 Overview_Description: Entity_and_Attribute_Overview: Projections of coastal cliff retreat for 21st century sea-level rise. The shapefiles files consist of shoreline positions changes (displayed as lines, with vertices at defined transects) caused by wave impacts in different named sea-level rise scenarios and model case/management options. Baseline cliff locations (points at each transect, for SLR 0 cm) are included for comparison. Projection files include uncertainty bands as a polygon around each projection line. Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation: Cliff retreat projections and uncertainty are generated and shown at transects (spaced approximately 100m-300m apart alongshore, identified in whole numbers) for Northern California. Distribution_Information: Distributor: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing and physical Address: Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302 City: Denver State_or_Province: CO Postal_Code: 80225 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: 1-888-275-8747 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sciencebase@usgs.gov Resource_Description: These data are available in shapefile formats, packaged in one zip file. Distribution_Liability: Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Standard_Order_Process: Digital_Form: Digital_Transfer_Information: Format_Name: Shapefile Format_Version_Number: ArcGIS 10.8.1 Format_Specification: Esri polygon shapefiles Format_Information_Content: The .zip file includes shapefiles (point, line and polygon) for projections of coastal cliff retreat File_Decompression_Technique: WinZip Transfer_Size: 2.42 Digital_Transfer_Option: Online_Option: Computer_Contact_Information: Network_Address: Network_Resource_Name: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/636d7473d34ed907bf6ba1fc?name=Coastal_Cliff_Retreat_Projections_NorCal_CoSMoS_3-2.zip Network_Resource_Name: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/636d7473d34ed907bf6ba1fc Network_Resource_Name: https://doi.org/10.5066/P9048D1S Network_Resource_Name: https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5633fea2e4b048076347f1cf Access_Instructions: Data can be downloaded using the Network_Resource_Name links. The first link is a direct link to download the data file. The second link points to the page with the data and metadata. The third link points to the landing page for all of the CoSMoS Northern California 3.2 data. The fourth link points to the community landing page for the entire CoSMoS project. Fees: none Metadata_Reference_Information: Metadata_Date: 20230209 Metadata_Contact: Contact_Information: Contact_Organization_Primary: Contact_Organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Contact_Person: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator Contact_Address: Address_Type: mailing and physical Address: 2885 Mission Street City: Santa Cruz State_or_Province: California Postal_Code: 95060-5792 Country: USA Contact_Voice_Telephone: 831-427-4747 Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: pcmsc_data@usgs.gov Metadata_Standard_Name: Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001-1998