Model estimates of the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced by a storm following recent wildfire; re-release of ten wildfires across California, 1997—2015

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
Model estimates of the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced by a storm following recent wildfire; re-release of ten wildfires across California, 1997—2015
Abstract:
These data show model estimates of debris flow likelihood and volume that may be produced by a storm in a recently burned landscape. The scientific methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Emergency Assessment of Post-Fire Debris-Flow Hazards were changed following 2015, and these shapefiles are a re-release of ten fires that occurred between 1997 and 2015 fires, using the updated methods. These ten fires were re-run to provide estimates of debris flow volumes as post-fire debris flows were documented but no field measurements were published.
Supplemental_Information:
Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata file is intended to document the dataset in nonproprietary form, as well as in Esri format, this metadata file may include some Esri-specific terminology. Note that although the metadata says the data are in UTM-10N projection, some of the files are in UTM-11N.
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Kostelnik, Jaime, and Dow, Helen W., 20240807, Model estimates of the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced by a storm following recent wildfire; re-release of ten wildfires across California, 1997—2015: data release DOI:10.5066/P9CG3DRR, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA.

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Dow, Helen W., Kostelnik, Jaime, Kean, Jason W., and Lindsay, Donald N., 2024, Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021: data release DOI:10.5066/P9CG3DRR, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested Citation: Dow, H.W., Kostelnik, J., Kean, J.W., and Lindsay, D.N., 2024, Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9CG3DRR.
  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -120.867019
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -116.164279
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 38.385179
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 32.873746
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Beginning_Date: 1997
    Ending_Date: 2015
    Currentness_Reference:
    Years in which fires occurred based on ground condition at time data were collected.
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: shapefile
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Vector data set. It contains the following vector data types (SDTS terminology):
      • G-polygon (7172)
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Grid_Coordinate_System_Name: Universal Transverse Mercator
      Universal_Transverse_Mercator:
      UTM_Zone_Number: 10
      Transverse_Mercator:
      Scale_Factor_at_Central_Meridian: 0.99960000
      Longitude_of_Central_Meridian: -123.00000000
      Latitude_of_Projection_Origin: 0.0
      False_Easting: 500000.0
      False_Northing: 0.0
      Planar coordinates are encoded using coordinate pair
      Abscissae (x-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 0.0001
      Ordinates (y-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 0.0001
      Planar coordinates are specified in Meter
      The horizontal datum used is North American Datum 1983.
      The ellipsoid used is GRS 1980.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.0.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257222101.
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    yyyZZZZ_Basin_DFPredictions_15min_24mmh
    shapefiles consisting of post-fire debris flow model application to fire yyy in year ZZZZ (Source: Producer defined)
    Basin_ID
    unique basin identifier used in modeling (unique to the debris flow shapefiles only). (Source: Producer defined) Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated.
    Shape_Area
    Shape of the feature (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:200
    Maximum:11630100
    Units:meters squared
    Fire_ID
    yyyZZZZ for fire abbreviation yyy and year ZZZZ. (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    yyyZZZZIdentification tag for wildfire products in above format.
    Fire_Segme
    Fire_ID plus Basin_ID (Source: Producer defined) The unique identifier created by combining attributes in format Fire_ID_Basin_ID.
    L_X1
    The proportion of upslope area burned at high or moderate severity and with gradients in excess of 23 degrees. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:1
    Units:NA
    L_X2
    The average dNBR of the upslope area, divided by 1000. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:0.988361
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-6
    L_X3
    The average KF-factor of the upslope area. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:0.340000
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-6
    V_X1
    square root of the total upstream relief, used in volume calcs. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:43.2692986
    Units:meters
    Resolution:1e-7
    V_X2
    natural log of the total upstream area burned at high and moderate severity. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-13.8155003
    Maximum:2.0045800
    Units:kilometers
    Resolution:1e-7
    R
    15-minute rainfall accumulation of design storm. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:6
    Units:millimeters per hour
    Resolution:1
    V_X3
    The square root of the peak 15-minute rainfall intensity. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:4.898979486
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-9
    X
    x values used to calculate the statistical likelihood of debris flow occurrence, see details in Staley and others, 2016. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-3.526274999
    Maximum:3.043831254
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-9
    ExpX
    exp(x), used for calculating likelihood (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:20.98549016
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-8
    P
    Logistic regression estimates statistical likelihood of debris-flow occurrence, see Staley and others, 2017. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:0.954515456
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1e-9
    PCl
    Classified probabilities, where 1 equals 0-20 percent, 2 equals 20-40 percent, 3 equals 40-60 percent, 4 equals 60-80 percent, 5 equals 80-100 percent (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:5
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    PCl_Legend
    field used to make probability layer legend. (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    0-20 percentprobability layer range corresponding to the PCI attribute value of 1
    20-40 percentprobability layer range corresponding to the PCI attribute value of 2
    40-60 percentprobability layer range corresponding to the PCI attribute value of 3
    60-80 percentprobability layer range corresponding to the PCI attribute value of 4
    80-100 percentprobability layer range corresponding to the PCI attribute value of 5
    LnV
    natural log of the predicted volume for the design storm, see Gartner and others, 2014. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:11.9508578
    Units:cubic meters
    Resolution:1e-7
    Volume
    predicted volume for the design storm, in cubic meters (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:154950.00590
    Units:cubic meters
    Resolution:1e-5
    VolMin
    lower confidence limit of the volume prediction for the design storm (based on -1 Standard Error) (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:19357.93711
    Units:cubic meters
    Resolution:1e-5
    VolMax
    upper confidence limit of the volume prediction for the design storm (based on +1 Standard Error) (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:1240292.50500
    Units:cubic meters
    Resolution:1e-5
    VolCl
    Classified volume predictions, where 1 equals less than 1,000 cubic meters, 2 equals 1,000-10,000 cubic meters, 3 equals 10,000-100,000 cubic meters, 4 equals greater than 100,000 cubic meters (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:4
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    VolCl_Lege
    field used to make volume layer legend. (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    less than 1,000probability layer range in cubic meters corresponding to the VolCI attribute value of 1
    1,000-10,000probability layer range in cubic meters corresponding to the VolCI attribute value of 2
    10,000-100,000probability layer range in cubic meters corresponding to the VolCI attribute value of 3
    greater than 100,000probability layer range in cubic meters corresponding to the VolCI attribute value of 4
    CombHaz
    relative hazard ranking, where CombHaz equals VolCl plus PCl. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:9
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    CombHazCl
    classified relative hazard ranking, where 1 equals 2 – 3, 2 equals 4 – 6, and 3 equals 7 – 9. (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:3
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    CombHazCl_
    field used to make combined hazard class legend (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    LowLow equals CombHazCl equals 1
    ModerateModerate equals CombHazCl equals 2
    HighHigh equals CombHazCl equals 3
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    This dataset has ten shapefiles which contain attributes related to application of two empirical post-fire debris-flow models, a likelihood model (Staley and others, 2016) and a volume model (Gartner and others, 2014).
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation: U.S. Geological Survey

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Jaime Kostelnik
    • Helen W. Dow
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data were produced as part of a USGS effort to estimate post-fire erosion across California from large wildfires between 1984 and 2021. They were intended to provide debris flow volume estimates for large wildfires where post-fire debris flows were documented but not measured, using methods that match those applied to fires between 2016 and 2021.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    DEM (source 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program, 2022, 3DEP DEM: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: Digital
    Source_Contribution:
    3DEP DEM was used as a source on which to run the post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume models.
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 2023 (process 1 of 1)
    Application of post-fire debris-flow likelihood model (Staley and others, 2016) and volume model (Gartner and others, 2014). Information about this process step can be found online at https://www.usgs.gov/programs/landslide-hazards/science/emergency-assessment-post-fire-debris-flow-hazards Data sources used in this process:
    • DEM
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Dow, Helen W., East, Amy E., Sankey, Joel B., Warrick, Jonathan A., Kostelnik, Jaime, Lindsay, Donald N., and Kean, Jason W., 2024, Postfire sediment mobilization and its downstream implications across California, 1984–2021.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Dow, H.W., East, A., Sankey, J.B., Warrick, J., Kostelnik, J., Lindsay, D.N., and Kean, J.W., 2024, Postfire sediment mobilization and its downstream implications across California, 1984 – 2021: Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007725.
    Staley, Dennis M., Negri, Jacquelyn A., Kean, Jason W., Laber, Jayme L., Tillery, Anne C., and Youberg, Ann M., 2016, Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Staley, D.M., Negri, J.A., Kean, J.W., Laber, J.M., Tillery, A.C., and Youberg, A.M., 2016, Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1106, 13 p., http://dx.doi.org/ofr20161106.
    Gartner, Joseph E., Cannon, Susan H., and Santi, Paul M, 2014, Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Gartner, J.E., Cannon, S.H. and Santi, P.M., 2014. Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California. Engineering Geology, 176, pp.45-56.

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    The attributes in this table are the input and output variables for two empirical models – a probability model and a volume model. The probability model does not have an estimation of accuracy, but the volume model provides a minimum and a maximum alongside the value. However, these models were developed based on field data in the western US and have not been tested for accuracy elsewhere.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    These data were created on a 10-meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) but a formal accuracy assessment of the horizontal positional information in the data set has not been conducted. Note that although the metadata says the data are in UTM-10N projection, some of the files are in UTM-11N.
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    A formal accuracy assessment of the vertical positional information in the data set has not been conducted
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    No data were intentionally omitted from the dataset, though the methods used to produce these data are designed to produce rapid, preliminary datasets used for hazard assessment and there is no QA/QC protocol, and thus some attributes may be incomplete within this dataset.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    These data fall within the expected range and polygons do not overlap as they each represent distinct watersheds. No nested basins appear to be present, but the data was not systematically checked for errors.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints No access constraints
Use_Constraints USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? These data are available in shapefile format (yyyZZZZ_Basin_DFPredictions_15min_24mmh.shp and associated files for fire yyy in year ZZZZ) for ten wildfires contained in a single zip file (ModelDF_shps.zip) accompanied by CSDGM FGDC-compliant metadata. Note that although the metadata says the data are in UTM-10N projection, some of the files are in UTM-11N.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
  4. How can I download or order the data?
  5. What hardware or software do I need in order to use the data set?
    data can be viewed with any geospatial software.

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 07-Aug-2024
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, CA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/pcmsc/DataReleases/ScienceBase/DR_P9CG3DRR/ModeledDebrisFlowLikelihoodAndVolume_metadata.faq.html>
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