Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea-level rise

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Frequently anticipated questions:


What does this data set describe?

Title:
Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea-level rise
Abstract:
This dataset contains projections of shoreline positions and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise. Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with lidar-derived shoreline vectors. Read metadata carefully. Details: Projections of shoreline position in the Central Coast of California are made for scenarios of 25, 50, 75, 92, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. SLR scenarios for 25, 50 and 75 cm are included in the National Research Council (NRC) excel and KMZ files. Four datasets are available for different management conditions: shorelines are allowed to retreat unimpeded past urban structures ("NO Hold the Line") or are limited to this urban boundary ("Hold the Line"), and shorelines are allowed to progress with projected increases in sediment ("Continued Nourishment") or with no projected increases ("No Nourishment"). Projections are made at CoSMoS Monitoring and Observation Points, which represent shore-normal transects spaced 100 m alongshore. The CoSMoS-COAST model solves a coupled set of partial differential equations that resembles conservation of sediment for the series of transects. The model is synthesized from several shoreline models in the scientific literature, which is described in more detail, along with the CoSMoS-Coast methodology, in Vitousek and others 2017. Significant uncertainty is associated with the process noise of the model and unresolved coastal processes. This makes estimation of uncertainty difficult. The uncertainty bands predicted here represent 95 percent confidence bands associated with the modeled shoreline fluctuations. Unresolved processes are not accounted for in the uncertainty bands and could lead to significantly more uncertainty than reported in these predictions.
Supplemental_Information:
This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Vitousek, Sean, and Barnard, Patrick L., 2018, Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea-level rise: data release DOI:10.5066/P9NUO62B, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Barnard, Patrick L., Erikson, Li H., Foxgrover, Amy C., Limber, Patrick W., O'Neill, Andrea C., and Vitousek, Sean, 2018, Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1: data release DOI:10.5066/P9NUO62B, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.70
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -120.42
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 37.82
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 34.52
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Beginning_Date: 01-Jan-2017
    Ending_Date: 10-Oct-2018
    Currentness_Reference:
    model start through publication date
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form:
    Shoreline change projections in Google Earth KMZ and Excel file formats
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Vector data set.
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Horizontal positions are specified in geographic coordinates, that is, latitude and longitude. Latitudes are given to the nearest 0.001. Longitudes are given to the nearest 0.001. Latitude and longitude values are specified in Decimal degrees. The horizontal datum used is World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84).
      The ellipsoid used is WGS84.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.0.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257223563.
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    CoSMoS-COAST Central California (CenCal) projections of shoreline position for 21st century sea-level rise
    Excel spreadsheet (.xlsx) files consisting of shoreline position changes caused by wave impacts in different named sea-level rise scenarios and management options (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    transect number
    transect ID number for each model output location (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:4803
    Maximum:8047
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    onshore transect position lat
    latitude position for onshore end of transect for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    onshore transect position lon
    longitude position for onshore end of transect for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    offshore transect position lat
    latitude position (for offshore end of transect for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    offshore transect position lon
    longitude position for offshore end of transect for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    initial shoreline lat
    latitude for initial shoreline position for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    initial shoreline lon
    longitude for initial shoreline position for named scenario (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    final shoreline lat
    latitude for final shoreline position for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    final shoreline lon
    longitude for final shoreline position for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    min shoreline uncertainty lat
    latitude for minimum final shoreline position with uncertainty for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    min shoreline uncertainty lon
    longitude for minimum final shoreline position for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    max shoreline uncertainty lat
    latitude for maximum final shoreline position with uncertainty for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    max shoreline uncertainty lon
    longitude for maximum final shoreline position with uncertainty for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    min shoreline with potential winter erosion uncertainty lat
    latitude for minimum final shoreline position considering potential winter erosion and uncertainty band for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    min shoreline with potential winter erosion uncertainty lon
    longitude for minimum final shoreline position considering potential winter erosion and uncertainty band for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    max shoreline with potential winter erosion uncertainty lat
    latitude for maximum final shoreline position considering potential winter erosion and uncertainty band for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    max shoreline with potential winter erosion uncertainty lon
    longitude for maximum final shoreline position considering potential winter erosion and uncertainty band for named scenario and management option (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    non-erodible shoreline lat
    latitude for non-erodible boundary position to limit shoreline projections for applicable named scenario (“hold the line”) (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:-122.70
    Maximum:-120.42
    Units:Decimal degrees
    non-erodible shoreline lon
    longitude for non-erodible boundary position to limit shoreline projections for applicable named scenario (“hold the line”) (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:37.8
    Maximum:34.5
    Units:Decimal degrees
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    CoSMoS-COAST Central California (CentralCal) projections of shoreline position for 21st century sea-level rise. The KMZ files consist of shoreline positions changes (displayed as ‘lines’ at defined transects) caused by wave impacts in different named sea-level rise scenarios and management options. Shoreline projections include uncertainty bands and potential wintertime erosion.
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
    Shoreline projections and uncertainty are projected at transects (spaced approximately 100m apart alongshore, identified in whole numbers from 4803 to 8047) for Central California. Free parameters and coefficients for numerical models are tuned at each transect location to fit historical data; see Equation 1 from Vitousek and others (2017) for details and definitions. Coefficients and data used to tune individual transect models are listed at each transect location. Shoreline positions at midpoints along each SLR curve are also provided.

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Sean Vitousek
    • Patrick L. Barnard
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, California
    USA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data provide an estimate of coastal shoreline position change in response to SLR during the 21st century and are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, students, and the general public. These data can be used with geographic information systems or other software to identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability. These data are not intended to be used for navigation.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    topobathy survey (source 1 of 2)
    Stevens, A. W., Logan, J. B., Snyder, A. G., Hoover, D. J., Barnard, P.L., and Warrick, J. A., 2017, Beach topography and nearshore bathymetry of northern Monterey Bay, California: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    Mean High Water (MHW) shoreline positions were digitized from survey data sets. Shoreline positions were used to calibrate multiple parameters within unique numerical models (Vitousek and others, 2017).
    NOAA lidar (source 2 of 2)
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2016, NOAA lidar surveys of the Central California region 1988-2016: NOAA Digital Coast, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    MHW shoreline positions were digitized from multiple lidar data sets within the full geographic extent of the study area from 1988 - 2016. Shoreline positions were used to calibrate multiple parameters within unique numerical models (Vitousek and others, 2017).
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 15-Feb-2017 (process 1 of 4)
    Developed numerical models outlined in Vitousek and others (2017) for Central California area; models are developed and run (within Matlab) to project shoreline change due to wave impacts and sea-level rise.
    Date: 01-Jun-2017 (process 2 of 4)
    Obtained shoreline vectors from topobathy surveys and NOAA lidar in the study area
    Date: 01-Jul-2017 (process 3 of 4)
    Refined data assimilation techniques outlined in Vitousek and others (2017) to better ingest and process lidar for Central California study area
    Date: 01-Jun-2018 (process 4 of 4)
    Applied models outlined above to Central California area and organized projections into spreadsheets and KMZ files. For sea-level rise for less than 100 cm, see the NRC curve spreadsheet and values will be provided in appropriately named tabs. Shoreline positions at mid-points along each SLR curve are also provided. Null projection values are listed as -9999.
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Vitousek, S., Barnard, P.L., Limber, P., Erikson, L.H., and Cole, B., 2017, A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change..

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Vitousek, S., Barnard, P.L., Limber, P., Erikson, L.H., and Cole, B., 2017, A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change: Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface, v. 122, p. 782-806.

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    Attribute values are estimates of shoreline position due to plausible future sea-level rise scenarios and therefore cannot be cross-checked with observations, because observations do not exist. The projections were generated using up-to-date numerical methods and are in line with projections made by previous researchers. Uncertainty bands are included that take seasonal variations in the shoreline as derived using the numerical model into account.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    A formal accuracy assessment of the projections was conducted for each model output location. The horizontal accuracy (or uncertainty) for each model output point is included within this geospatial dataset and was determined at the 95 percent confidence level.
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    N/A
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    These geospatial projections are complete. Any gaps in these data, if applicable, are a consequence of nonexisting data or existing data that did not meet quality assurance standards. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record and references carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have undergone QA/QC and fall within expected/reasonable ranges.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints: none
Use_Constraints:
USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO
    USA

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? These data are available in Excel (.xlsx) and in KMZ formats. Each management scenario (‘Hold the Line’, ‘No Hold the Line’, ‘No Nourishment’ and ‘Continued Nourishment) is packaged in a separate XLSX or KMZ file. CSDGM FGDC-compliant metadata is zipped with the dataset.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
  4. How can I download or order the data?

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 17-Oct-2018
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, California
USA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)

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