Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of shoreline change due to 21st century sea-level rise
This dataset contains projections of shoreline positions and uncertainty bands for future scenarios of sea-level rise. Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with lidar-derived shoreline vectors. Read metadata carefully.
Details: Projections of shoreline position in the Central Coast of California are made for scenarios of 25, 50, 75, 92, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. SLR scenarios for 25, 50 and 75 cm are included in the National Research Council (NRC) excel and KMZ files. Four datasets are available for different management conditions: shorelines are allowed to retreat unimpeded past urban structures ("NO Hold the Line") or are limited to this urban boundary ("Hold the Line"), and shorelines are allowed to progress with projected increases in sediment ("Continued Nourishment") or with no projected increases ("No Nourishment"). Projections are made at CoSMoS Monitoring and Observation Points, which represent shore-normal transects spaced 100 m alongshore. The CoSMoS-COAST model solves a coupled set of partial differential equations that resembles conservation of sediment for the series of transects. The model is synthesized from several shoreline models in the scientific literature, which is described in more detail, along with the CoSMoS-Coast methodology, in Vitousek and others 2017.
Significant uncertainty is associated with the process noise of the model and unresolved coastal processes. This makes estimation of uncertainty difficult. The uncertainty bands predicted here represent 95 percent confidence bands associated with the modeled shoreline fluctuations. Unresolved processes are not accounted for in the uncertainty bands and could lead to significantly more uncertainty than reported in these predictions.
This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States.
For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/
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