Davina L. Passeri Julien Martin Matthew S. Richardson Simeon Yurek 20251118 tabular digital data Davina L. Passeri Julien Martin Matthew S. Richardson Simeon Yurek 20251118 U.S. Geological Survey data release doi:10.5066/P1TUTDPZ St. Petersburg, FL U.S. Geological Survey - St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center https://doi.org/10.5066/P1TUTDPZ A scientific expert elicitation was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in March 2022 to address the feasibility of restoring coastal environments in response to future hazards to best meet management objectives. Subject matter experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics used to evaluate decision objectives and alternatives informed by a stakeholder advisory group for the MS/AL region including Dauphin Island, AL and the Grand Bay estuary in MS/AL. This entailed estimating the effects of three management actions (no-action, interior headland restoration, barrier island beach and dune nourishment) and two environmental scenarios (changes in sea level) on quantifiable performance measures of salt marsh productivity, storm surge flooding, and barrier island morphology by the year 2050. Information was elicited from each expert as a probabilistic estimate following a three-point estimate method where experts were first asked to enter a "low", "high" and "best" estimate, in that order, with instructions that they were 95% confident that bounds would include the true value. The elicited values of each expert are provided in this data release. Identifying information has been removed from all elicited values files to protect confidentiality in accordance with the Privacy Act of 1974. For further information regarding the data collection methods, refer to the associated journal article Passeri and others (2025). These data were elicited from scientific experts to assess the effects of management actions and environmental scenarios on changes in storm surge flooding, salt marsh extents and barrier island morphology in coastal MS/AL. Elicited_Values.zip is a dataset consisting of Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata and Comma-Separated Values (CSV) files containing the following variables: expert identifier number, performance measure, management action, environmental scenario, low, high and best estimate, and confidence level. 20220311 ground condition Complete None planned -88.4500 -88.0500 30.1000 30.4500 USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:f6a4aeb8-cc5a-482b-97aa-2898057ad8ba ISO 19115 Topic Category oceans USGS Thesaurus storm surge coastal processes geomorphology statistical surveying sea-level change None U.S. Geological Survey USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center SPCMSC Common Geographic Areas Gulf of America Alabama Mississippi Grand Bay Pascagoula North America United States Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) Mississippi Sound Dauphin Island None. Please see 'Distribution Information' for details. These data are marked with a Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal License. These data are in the public domain and do not have any use constraints. Users are advised to read the dataset's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations. U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center Davina Passeri Research Oceanographer Mailing

600 4th Street South

St. Petersburg FL 33701 US 727-502-8014 dpasseri@usgs.gov U.S. Geological Survey Microsoft Windows 11 Enterprise (Version 23H2); Microsoft Excel (Version 2408). Davina L. Passeri Matthew S. Richardson Julien Martin Simeon Yurek Karim Alizad Matthew V. Bilskie James G. Flocks Donya P. Frank-Gilchrist Robert L. Jenkins III Rangley C. Mickey Margaret L. Palmsten Christopher G. Smith Kathryn E.L. Smith Sara L. Zeigler 20251118 Journal of Environmental Management 394 Online Elsevier https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127447 No formal logical accuracy tests were conducted. These are the complete elicited values. This dataset is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract section. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details. In March 2022, an expert elicitation was conducted to assess the effects of management actions and environmental scenarios on performance measures of changes in storm surge flooding, salt marsh extents and barrier island morphology in coastal MS/AL. This entailed estimating the effects of three management actions (no-action, interior headland restoration, barrier island beach and dune nourishment) and two environmental scenarios (changes in sea level) on quantifiable performance measures of salt marsh productivity, storm surge flooding, and barrier island morphology by the year 2050. Information was elicited from each expert as a probabilistic estimate following a three-point estimate method where experts were first asked to enter a "low", "high" and "best" estimate, in that order, with instructions that they were 95% confident that bounds would include the true value. The elicited values of each expert are provided in this data release. The elicitation method and details on the performance measures, restoration actions and environmental scenarios are further outlined in Passeri and others (2025). This dataset provides the elicited values for each expert as defined in the accompanying data dictionary (Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx). The elicited values were packaged into CSV files (.csv) for each expert identifier using the functions available in Microsoft Excel for inclusion in this data release. 2025 Davina Passeri U.S. Geological Survey. St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center Research Oceanographer mailing and physical address

600 4th Street S

St. Petersburg FL 33701 USA (727)-502-8014 dpasseri@usgs.gov Elicited_Values.zip: Data download file (.zip) containing comma-separated values files (.csv) of the elicited values collected from each of the eleven experts (self-selected identifier numbers 0222, 0525, 0879, 1225, 1234, 1357, 1360, 3010, 4000, 4210, 5024). Detailed attribute descriptions for these files are included in the data dictionary (Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx). These metadata are not complete without this file. The entity and attribute information were generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the dataset. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information. U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center USGS SPCMSC Data Management mailing address

600 4th Street South

St. Petersburg FL 33701 US 727-502-8000 gs-g-spcmsc_data_inquiries@usgs.gov Expert_0222_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_0525_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_0879_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1225_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1234_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1357_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1360_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_3010_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_4000_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_4210_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_5024_Elicited_Values.csv, and Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. comma-delimited text, Microsoft Word format The data download file is compressed and must be unzipped using software such as WinZip, 7zip, Peazip or pkUnzip before use. https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/data-release/doi-P1TUTDPZ/data/Elicited_Values.zip None 20251118 USGS SPCMSC Data Management U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center mailing address

600 4th Street South

St. Petersburg FL 33701 US 727-502-8000 gs-g-spcmsc_data_inquiries@usgs.gov Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998