Lifespan distribution in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) salt marsh complex is presented in terms of lifespan of conceptual marsh units defined by Ackerman and others (2022). The lifespan calculation is based on estimated sediment supply and sea-level rise (SLR) predictions after Ganju and others (2020). Sea level predictions are present day estimates at the prescribed rate of SLR, which correspond to the 0.3, 0.5, and 1.0 meter increase in Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios by 2100 from Sweet and others (2022). Through scientific efforts initiated with the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey has been expanding national assessment of coastal change hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands, including the Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, with the intent of providing Federal, State, and local managers with tools to estimate the vulnerability and ecosystem service potential of these wetlands. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services.
Ackerman, K.V., Defne, Z., and Ganju, N.K., 2022, Geospatial characterization of salt marshes in Chesapeake Bay: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P997EJYB
Ganju, N.K., Defne, Z., Fagherazzi, S., 2020, Are elevation and open-water conversion of salt marshes connected?, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086703
Sweet, W.V., Hamlington, B.D., Kopp, R.E., Weaver, C.P., Barnard, P.L., Bekaert, D., Brooks, W., Craghan, M., Dusek, G., Frederikse, T., Garner, G., Genz, A.S., Krasting, J.P., Larour, E., Marcy, D., Marra, J.J., Obeysekera, J., Osler, M., Pendleton, M., Roman, D., Schmied, L., Veatch, W., White, K.D., and Zuzak, C., 2022, Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.