Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions for Florida and Georgia

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions for Florida and Georgia
Abstract:
During Hurricane Irma, Florida and Georgia experienced substantial impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses from hurricanes result in increased vulnerability of coastal regions, including densely populated areas. Erosion may put critical infrastructure at risk of future flooding and may cause economic loss. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program is working to assess shoreline erosion along the southeast U.S. coastline and analyze its implications for future vulnerability.
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    U.S. Geological Survey, 20210927, Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions for Florida and Georgia: data release DOI:10.5066/P9OWFEUH, U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole, MA.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Kratzmann, Meredith G., Farris, Amy S., Henderson, Rachel E., and Himmelstoss, Emily A., 2021, Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia: data release DOI:10.5066/P9OWFEUH, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested citation: Kratzmann, M.G., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Himmelstoss, E.A., 2021, Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH.
  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -87.550183
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -80.030534
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 32.027530
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 25.665528
  3. What does it look like?
    https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/613ba403d34e40dd9c0f973d?name=FL_GA_Forecast_Graphic.jpg (PNG)
    Graphic that shows extent of forecast.
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Calendar_Date: 2031
    Currentness_Reference:
    publication date
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: vector digital data
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Vector data set. It contains the following vector data types (SDTS terminology):
      • String (71)
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      The horizontal datum used is GCS_WGS_1984.
      The ellipsoid used is WGS 1984.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.0.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257223563.
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    FL_GA_forecast.shp
    The uncertainty in the ten-year shoreline forecast (2031) generated by DSAS extrapolating the linear regression rate (LRR). (Source: U.S. Geological Survey)
    FID
    Internal feature number. (Source: Esri) Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated.
    Shape
    The geometry field (shape) is automatically created and maintained by ArcGIS. It provides a definition of the feature type (point, line, polygon). (Source: Esri)
    ValueDefinition
    PolylineThe geometry field (shape) is automatically created and maintained by ArcGIS. It provides a definition of the feature type (point, line, polygon).
    ForecastPe
    Time period of shoreline forecast, 10 years from DSAS run date. (Source: USGS)
    ValueDefinition
    10Time period of shoreline forecast, 10 or 20 years from DSAS run date.
    ForecastYe
    Year of forecast shoreline. (Source: USGS)
    ValueDefinition
    2031Year of forecast shoreline.
    STATE
    The state in which the shoreline segment lies. (Source: USGS)
    ValueDefinition
    GAThe state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers. GA - Georgia, FLec - Florida east coast, FLwc - Florida west coast, FLph - Florida pan handle
    FLecThe state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers. GA - Georgia, FLec - Florida east coast, FLwc - Florida west coast, FLph - Florida pan handle
    FLwcThe state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers. GA - Georgia, FLec - Florida east coast, FLwc - Florida west coast, FLph - Florida pan handle
    FLphThe state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers. GA - Georgia, FLec - Florida east coast, FLwc - Florida west coast, FLph - Florida pan handle

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • U.S. Geological Survey
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Meredith G. Kratzmann
    384 Woods Hole Road
    Woods Hole, MA
    USA

    508-457-8700 (voice)
    508-547-2310 (FAX)
    mkratzmann@contractor.usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

Shoreline positions were collected prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of Florida and Georgia. Shoreline positions from the mid-1800s through 2018 were used to update the shoreline change rates for Florida and Georgia using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. The shoreline positions and updated shoreline change rates calculated by the USGS provide actionable information to homeowners, coastal communities, and managers of public and private properties. This information can be used to improve resilience to erosion hazards. This information can now also be used by DSAS to estimate the future shoreline position. The forecasted shoreline position for the year 2031, and its estimated uncertainty, are provided in this data release. This forecast should be treated with extreme caution. The method used by DSAS to produce it is still preliminary. Initial testing of the method has shown that forecasts can be highly inaccurate, especially in dynamic areas (for example, near inlets). The degree of error in the forecasted shoreline position may be larger than the estimated uncertainty.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    FL_GA Shoreline Change Rates (source 1 of 1)
    Kratzmann, Meredith G., Farris, Amy S., Henderson, Rachel E., and Himmelstoss, Emily A., 2021, USGS National Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of Updated Vector Shorelines (1800s - 2010s) and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Georgia and Florida Coasts: data release DOI:10.5066/P9J3CVN4, U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole, MA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested citation: Kratzmann, M.G., Farris, A.S., Weber, K.M., Henderson, R.E., Himmelstoss, E.A., 2021, USGS National Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of Updated Vector Shorelines (1800s - 2010s) and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Georgia and Florida Coasts: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/DOI:10.5066/P9J3CVN4.
    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    Shoreline change data from Florida and Georgia, including shoreline intersects and rates of shoreline change (linear regression) for dates 1851 - 2018 were used with DSAS to calculate the 10-year shoreline forecasts and associated uncertainty ranges for Georgia and Florida. Shoreline dates vary alongshore. The range given is for all shoreline data in Georgia and Florida.
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 2021 (process 1 of 3)
    Shoreline change rate data (including rate transects and intersects) from Kratzmann and others (2021) were used with the beta forecasting function in DSAS to produce 10-year shoreline forecasts and the uncertainty range associated with the forecasts. For more information about how the forecast is calculated, see section 8 (“Beta Shoreline Forecasting“) of the DSAS version 5 User Guide listed in the cross references of this metadata file. Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Meredith G. Kratzmann
    384 Woods Hole Road
    Woods Hole, MA
    USA

    508-457-8700 (voice)
    508-547-2310 (FAX)
    mkratzmann@contractor.usgs.gov
    Data sources used in this process:
    • FL_GA Shoreline Change Rates
    Data sources produced in this process:
    • GA_forecast
    • GA_forecast_uncy
    • FLec_forecast
    • FLec_forecast_uncy
    • FLwc_forecast
    • FLwc_forecast_uncy
    • FLph_forecast
    • FLph_forecast_uncy
    Date: 2021 (process 2 of 3)
    The output forecast files (including forecast and forecast_uncy) were converted from WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_18N (for files with prefix GA, FLec and FLwc)/ WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_17N (FLph), to GCS_WGS_1984 using the ArcToolbox tool “Project” (ArcToolbox > Data Management > Projections and Transformations > Project). Output files were given the same name as the inputs, with "_WGS" as the suffix. Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Rachel E. Henderson
    384 Woods Hole Road
    Woods Hole, MA
    USA

    508-548-8700 (voice)
    508-547-2310 (FAX)
    rehenderson@contractor.usgs.gov
    Data sources used in this process:
    • GA_forecast
    • GA_forecast_uncy
    • FLec_forecast
    • FLec_forecast_uncy
    • FLwc_forecast
    • FLwc_forecast_uncy
    • FLph_forecast
    • FLph_forecast_uncy
    Data sources produced in this process:
    • GA_forecast_WGS
    • GA_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLec_forecast WGS
    • FLec_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLwc_forecast WGS
    • FLwc_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLph_forecast WGS
    • FLph_forecast_uncy WGS
    Date: 2021 (process 3 of 3)
    Using the ArcTool “Merge” (ArcToolbox > Data Management Tools > General > Merge) all forecast shorelines were combined for FL and GA based on type (polygon/polyline). There is one output for “forecast”(polyline) and one for “forecast_uncy” (polygon). Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Rachel E. Henderson
    384 Woods Hole Road
    Woods Hole, MA
    USA

    508-548-8700 (voice)
    508-548-8700 (FAX)
    rehenderson@contractor.usgs.gov
    Data sources used in this process:
    • GA_forecast_WGS
    • GA_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLec_forecast WGS
    • FLec_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLwc_forecast WGS
    • FLwc_forecast_uncy WGS
    • FLph_forecast WGS
    • FLph_forecast_uncy WGS
    Data sources produced in this process:
    • FL_GA_forecast
    • FL_GA_forecast_uncy
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Himmelstoss, E.A., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M.G., Ergul, A., Zhang, O., Zichichi, J.L., and Thieler, E.R., 2018, Digital Shoreline Analysis System (version 5): U.S. Geological Survey software: software version 5, U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Reston, VA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested citation: Himmelstoss, E.A., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M.G., Ergul, A., Zhang, O., Zichichi, J.L., and Thieler, E.R., 2018, Digital Shoreline Analysis System (ver. 5): U.S. Geological Survey software, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9VW42I0.
    Himmelstoss, E.A., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M.G., and Farris, A., 2018, Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 5 User Guide: Open File Report 2018-1179, U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Woods Hole, MA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested citation: Himmelstoss, E.A., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M, Farris, A., 2018, DSAS version 5 User Guide. U.S. Geological Survey report 2018-1179, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20181179

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    The attributes are based on the outputs of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. Please refer to the cross reference for a full citation. The method used by DSAS to produce these forecasts is still being tested. Initial testing has shown that these forecasts can be highly inaccurate, especially near inlets. The actual error in these shoreline positions may be larger than the estimated uncertainty.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    This dataset contains: (1) polyline shoreline for the year 2031 (10-year forecasts) and (2) the uncertainty range as polygons associated with this shoreline for the coasts of Georgia and Florida. Both the shoreline and uncertainty polygons were generated by the beta Shoreline Forecasting tool in the DSAS v5 software application.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    These data were generated using DSAS, an automated software program which does not perform checks for fidelity of the input features. Any testing on these data should be carried out by end-users to ensure fidelity of relationships.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints None
Use_Constraints These data were automatically generated using the DSAS version 5 software application and should only be used for purposes explicitly stated by the originating organization. The method used to calculate these forecasts is still being tested for accuracy. These forecasts should be handled with extreme caution and are likely inaccurate in many areas, especially near inlets. Public domain data from the U.S. Government are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator of the dataset.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Federal Center, Building 810, MS 302
    Denver, CO

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? The dataset contains the polyline shapefile forecasted shoreline positions for GA and FL, using the beta forecasting available in DSAS v5.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Neither the U.S. Government, the Department of the Interior, nor the USGS, nor any of their employees, contractors, or subcontractors, make any warranty, express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, nor represent that its use would not infringe on privately owned rights. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed by the USGS in the use of these data or related materials. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and have been processed successfully on a computer system at the USGS, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
  4. How can I download or order the data?
  5. What hardware or software do I need in order to use the data set?
    These data are available in a polyline shapefile format. The user must have software to read and process the data components of a shapefile.

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 19-Mar-2024
Last Reviewed: 08-Sep-2021
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey
Attn: Meredith G. Kratzmann
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole, MA

508-548-8700 (voice)
508-547-2310 (FAX)
whsc_data_contact@usgs.gov
Contact_Instructions:
The metadata contact email address is a generic address in the event the person is no longer with USGS. (updated on 20240319)
Metadata standard:
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/whcmsc/SB_data_release/DR_P9OWFEUH/FL_GA_forecast_metadata.faq.html>
Generated by mp version 2.9.51 on Wed Jun 26 15:25:07 2024