U.S. Geological Survey
20210927
Uncertainty of forecasted shoreline positions for Florida and Georgia
vector digital data
data release
DOI:10.5066/P9OWFEUH
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole, MA
U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/613ba441d34e40dd9c0f9740
Meredith G. Kratzmann
Amy S. Farris
Rachel E. Henderson
Emily A. Himmelstoss
2021
Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia
vector digital data
data release
DOI:10.5066/P9OWFEUH
Reston, VA
U.S. Geological Survey
Suggested citation: Kratzmann, M.G., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Himmelstoss, E.A., 2021, Preliminary estimates of forecasted shoreline positions and associated uncertainties for Florida and Georgia: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/6138d832d34e40dd9c0d5b84
During Hurricane Irma, Florida and Georgia experienced substantial impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses from hurricanes result in increased vulnerability of coastal regions, including densely populated areas. Erosion may put critical infrastructure at risk of future flooding and may cause economic loss. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program is working to assess shoreline erosion along the southeast U.S. coastline and analyze its implications for future vulnerability.
Shoreline positions were collected prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of Florida and Georgia. Shoreline positions from the mid-1800s through 2018 were used to update the shoreline change rates for Florida and Georgia using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. The shoreline positions and updated shoreline change rates calculated by the USGS provide actionable information to homeowners, coastal communities, and managers of public and private properties. This information can be used to improve resilience to erosion hazards. This information can now also be used by DSAS to estimate the future shoreline position. The forecasted shoreline position for the year 2031, and its estimated uncertainty, are provided in this data release. This forecast should be treated with extreme caution. The method used by DSAS to produce it is still preliminary. Initial testing of the method has shown that forecasts can be highly inaccurate, especially in dynamic areas (for example, near inlets). The degree of error in the forecasted shoreline position may be larger than the estimated uncertainty.
2031
publication date
None planned
-87.550270
-80.030252
32.028054
25.665385
ISO 19115 Topic Category
environment
geoscientificInformation
oceans
None
USGS
U.S. Geological Survey
Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
WHCMSC
Digital Shoreline Analysis System
DSAS
Shoreline Forecasting
Shoreline Forecasting Uncertainty
Kalman filter
USGS thesaurus
coastal processes
geospatial datasets
None
United States
Georgia
Florida
USGS Metadata Identifier
USGS:613ba441d34e40dd9c0f9740
None
These data were automatically generated using the DSAS version 5 software application and should only be used for purposes explicitly stated by the originating organization. The method used to calculate these forecasts is still being tested for accuracy. These forecasts should be handled with extreme caution and are likely inaccurate in many areas, especially near inlets. Public domain data from the U.S. Government are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator of the dataset.
U.S. Geological Survey
Meredith G. Kratzmann
mailing and physical address
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543-1598
USA
508-457-8700
508-547-2310
mkratzmann@contractor.usgs.gov
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/613ba441d34e40dd9c0f9740?name=FL_GA_Forecast_Uncertainty_Graphic.jpg
Graphic that shows extent of forecast.
PNG
E.A. Himmelstoss
A.S. Farris
R.E. Henderson
M.G. Kratzmann
A. Ergul
O. Zhang
J.L. Zichichi
E.R. Thieler
2018
Digital Shoreline Analysis System (version 5): U.S. Geological Survey software
application/service
software
version 5
Reston, VA
U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Suggested citation: Himmelstoss, E.A., Farris, A.S., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M.G., Ergul, A., Zhang, O., Zichichi, J.L., and Thieler, E.R., 2018, Digital Shoreline Analysis System (ver. 5): U.S. Geological Survey software, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9VW42I0.
https://code.usgs.gov/cch/dsas/
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9VW42I0
E.A. Himmelstoss
R.E. Henderson
M.G. Kratzmann
A. Farris
2018
Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) Version 5 User Guide
publication
Open File Report
2018-1179
Woods Hole, MA
U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Suggested citation: Himmelstoss, E.A., Henderson, R.E., Kratzmann, M, Farris, A., 2018, DSAS version 5 User Guide. U.S. Geological Survey report 2018-1179, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20181179
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20181179
https://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/DSAS/
The attributes are based on the outputs of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. Please refer to the cross reference for a full citation. The method used by DSAS to produce these forecasts is still being tested. Initial testing has shown that these forecasts can be highly inaccurate, especially near inlets. The actual error in these shoreline positions may be larger than the estimated uncertainty.
These data were generated using DSAS, an automated software program which does not perform checks for fidelity of the input features. Any testing on these data should be carried out by end-users to ensure fidelity of relationships.
This dataset contains: (1) polyline shoreline for the year 2031 (10-year forecasts) and (2) the uncertainty range as polygons associated with the shoreline for the coasts of Georgia and Florida. Both the shoreline and uncertainty polygons were generated by the beta Shoreline Forecasting tool in the DSAS v5 software application.
Meredith G. Kratzmann
Amy S. Farris
Rachel E. Henderson
Emily A. Himmelstoss
2021
USGS National Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of Updated Vector Shorelines (1800s - 2010s) and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Georgia and Florida Coasts
vector digital data
data release
DOI:10.5066/P9J3CVN4
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole, MA
U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Suggested citation: Kratzmann, M.G., Farris, A.S., Weber, K.M., Henderson, R.E., Himmelstoss, E.A., 2021, USGS National Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of Updated Vector Shorelines (1800s - 2010s) and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Georgia and Florida Coasts: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/DOI:10.5066/P9J3CVN4.
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9J3CVN4
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/612cf2a3d34e40dd9c08844b
online
1800
2018
ground condition
FL_GA Shoreline Change Rates
Shoreline change data from Florida and Georgia, including shoreline intersects and rates of shoreline change (linear regression) for dates 1851 - 2018 were used with DSAS to calculate the 10-year shoreline forecasts and associated uncertainty ranges for Georgia and Florida. Shoreline dates vary alongshore. The range given is for all shoreline data in Georgia and Florida.
Shoreline change rate data (including rate transects and intersects) from Kratzmann and others 2021) were used with the beta forecasting function in DSAS to produce 10-year shoreline forecasts and the uncertainty range associated with the forecasts. For more information about how the forecast is calculated, see section 8 (“Beta Shoreline Forecasting“) of the DSAS version 5 User Guide listed in the cross references of this metadata file.
FL_GA Shoreline Change Rates
2021
GA_forecast
GA_forecast_uncy
FLec_forecast
FLec_forecast_uncy
FLwc_forecast
FLwc_forecast_uncy
FLph_forecast
FLph_forecast_uncy
U.S. Geological Survey
Meredith G. Kratzmann
mailing and physical
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543-1598
USA
508-457-8700
508-547-2310
mkratzmann@contractor.usgs.gov
The output forecast files (including forecast and forecast_uncy) were converted from WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_18N (for files with prefix GA, FLec and FLwc)/ WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_17N (FLph), to GCS_WGS_1984 using the ArcToolbox tool “Project” (ArcToolbox > Data Management > Projections and Transformations > Project). Output files were given the same name as the inputs, with "_WGS" as the suffix.
GA_forecast
GA_forecast_uncy
FLec_forecast
FLec_forecast_uncy
FLwc_forecast
FLwc_forecast_uncy
FLph_forecast
FLph_forecast_uncy
2021
GA_forecast_WGS
GA_forecast_uncy WGS
FLec_forecast WGS
FLec_forecast_uncy WGS
FLwc_forecast WGS
FLwc_forecast_uncy WGS
FLph_forecast WGS
FLph_forecast_uncy WGS
U.S. Geological Survey
Rachel E. Henderson
mailing and physical
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543-1598
USA
508-548-8700
508-547-2310
rehenderson@contractor.usgs.gov
Using the ArcTool “Merge” (ArcToolbox > Data Management Tools > General > Merge) all forecast shorelines were combined for FL and GA based on type (polygon/polyline). There is one output for “forecast”(polyline) and one for “forecast_uncy” (polygon).
GA_forecast_WGS
GA_forecast_uncy WGS
FLec_forecast WGS
FLec_forecast_uncy WGS
FLwc_forecast WGS
FLwc_forecast_uncy WGS
FLph_forecast WGS
FLph_forecast_uncy WGS
2021
FL_GA_forecast
FL_GA_forecast_uncy
U.S. Geological Survey
Rachel E. Henderson
mailing and physical
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543-1598
USA
508-548-8700
508-548-8700
rehenderson@contractor.usgs.gov
Vector
String
71
GCS_WGS_1984
WGS 1984
6378137.0
298.257223563
FL_GA_forecast_uncy.shp
The uncertainty in the ten-year shoreline forecast (2031) generated by DSAS extrapolating the linear regression rate (LRR).
U.S. Geological Survey
FID
Internal feature number.
Esri
Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated.
Shape
The geometry field (shape) is automatically created and maintained by ArcGIS. It provides a definition of the feature type (point, line, polygon).
Esri
Polygon
The geometry field (shape) is automatically created and maintained by ArcGIS. It provides a definition of the feature type (point, line, polygon).
Esri
ForecastPe
Time period of shoreline forecast, 10 or 20 years from DSAS run date.
USGS
10
Time period of shoreline forecast, 10 years from DSAS run date.
U.S. Geological Survey
ForecastYe
Year of forecast shoreline.
USGS
2031
Year of forecast shoreline.
U.S. Geological Survey
STATE
The state in which the shoreline segment lies.
USGS
GA
The state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers.
GA - Georgia,
FLec - Florida east coast,
FLwc - Florida west coast,
FLph - Florida pan handle
U.S. Geological Survey
FLec
The state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers.
GA - Georgia,
FLec - Florida east coast,
FLwc - Florida west coast,
FLph - Florida pan handle
U.S. Geological Survey
FLwc
The state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers.
GA - Georgia,
FLec - Florida east coast,
FLwc - Florida west coast,
FLph - Florida pan handle
U.S. Geological Survey
FLph
The state this forecast/forecast uncertainty covers.
GA - Georgia,
FLec - Florida east coast,
FLwc - Florida west coast,
FLph - Florida pan handle
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
mailing and physical
Federal Center, Building 810, MS 302
Denver
CO
80225
1-888-275-8747
sciencebase@usgs.gov
The dataset contains the polyline shapefile forecasted shoreline positions for GA and FL, using the beta forecasting available in DSAS v5.
Neither the U.S. Government, the Department of the Interior, nor the USGS, nor any of their employees, contractors, or subcontractors, make any warranty, express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, nor represent that its use would not infringe on privately owned rights. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed by the USGS in the use of these data or related materials. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and have been processed successfully on a computer system at the USGS, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Shapefile
ArcGIS 10.6
Esri polyline shapefile
Dataset contains the shapefile, browse graphic, and CSDGM metadata.
0.64
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/613ba441d34e40dd9c0f9740
https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/613ba441d34e40dd9c0f9740
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9OWFEUH
The first link is to the page containing the data. The second is a direct link to download all data available from the page as a zip file. The final link is to the publication landing page.
None
These data are available in a polyline shapefile format. The user must have software to read and process the data components of a shapefile.
20210927
20210908
U.S. Geological Survey
Meredith G. Kratzmann
mailing and physical
384 Woods Hole Road
Woods Hole
MA
02543
508-548-8700
508-547-2310
mkratzmann@contractor.usgs.gov
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
FGDC-STD-001-1998
local time