CoSMoS-AK Modeled flood and erosion hazards at Golovin- Coastal Alaska
By Li H. Erikson, Anita C. Engelstad, Kees M. Nederhoff, Alex L. Nereson, Ann E. Gibbs, and Maya K. Hayden
https://doi.org/10.5066/P143PXZA
Dates
Published: Sept. 30, 2025
Summary
This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, wave heights, velocity hazard, and erosion and sedimentation pattern. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; Haarsma and others, 2016). The resulting data include gridded maps and shapefiles that reflect projected coastal hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and plausible future storm scenarios. These scenarios account for changes in storm behavior, reductions in sea ice cover, and natural variability. Flood simulations incorporate dynamic contributions from tides, storm surge, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations—providing a comprehensive view of potential future flooding. Outputs cover six SLR scenarios (0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters) combined with five storm return periods (1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year events), along with a background condition representing no storm (only astronomical tides and average atmospheric conditions). Additionally, this data release includes the XBeach model used for Golovin, Alaska.
Simulation Data
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2D XBeach model input files – Golovin, Alaska
The data sets provided here consist of 2D XBeach model files and sample input files used for Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) simulations of flood and erosion hazards in Golovin, Alaska. The models produce outputs for a suite of hazard products (see products in this release), such as flood depths, flood extents, and erosion and sedimentation. In this release, example forcing files for conditions with a 100-year return period coastal storm and a sea level rise of 0.5 m are provided, in addition to all other files needed to run the model in surfbeat and nonhydrostatic modes.
Data Files
2D_XBeach_ModelInput_NH_Golovin.zip - 9.4 MB
2D_XBeach_ModelInput_SB_Golovin.zip - 7.8 MB
Metadata Files
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Erosion and sedimentation projections at Golovin, Alaska
Erosion and sedimentation maps resulting from compound coastal hazards —specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms-are provided for Golovin, Alaska. These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood extent and velocity hazards; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as gridded maps (GeoTIFFs) for 30 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods).
Data Files
Erosion_and_sedimentation_projections-Golovin.zip - 143.7 MB
Metadata Files
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Flood depth projections at Golovin, Alaska
Flood depths from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Golovin, Alaska. The flood depth products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood extent and event-driven erosion; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as gridded maps (GeoTIFFs) for 36 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods, as well as the background, no storm, conditions). As an additional product, these data are also provided only for areas landward of the present-day shoreline to make the impact of each scenario more visible. These are available for all mentioned storm and SLR combinations but not for the background condition with no SLR (since this scenario does not exceed the present-day shoreline).
Data Files
Flood_depth_projections-Golovin.zip - 750.5 MB
Flood_depth_projections_MHHW-Golovin.zip - 272.6 MB
Metadata Files
Flood_depth_proj_Golovin_metadata.xml - 33.0 KB
Flood_depth_proj_Golovin_metadata.txt - 31.6 KB
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Flood extent and uncertainty projections at Golovin, Alaska
Flood extents, as well as the upper and lower uncertainty bounds of flood extents, from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Golovin, Alaska. These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood depths and event-driven erosion; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as shapefiles for 36 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods, as well as the background, no storm, conditions).
Data Files
Flood_extent_and_uncertainty_projections-Golovin.zip - 27.2 MB
Metadata Files
Flood_extent_proj_Golovin_metadata.xml - 32.9 KB
Flood_extent_proj_Golovin_metadata.txt - 31.8 KB
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Velocity hazard projections at Golovin, Alaska
Velocity hazards (maximum depth times velocity) from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Golovin, Alaska. Velocity hazards are a measure of the velocity severity. Categories range from 0 (low hazard) to 4 (extreme hazard) following guidance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (2020). These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood extent and event-driven erosion; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as gridded maps (GeoTIFFs) for 30 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods).
Data Files
Velocity_hazard_projections-Golovin.zip - 18.7 MB
Metadata Files
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Water elevation projections at Golovin, Alaska
Water elevations from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Golovin, Alaska. These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood extent and event-driven erosion; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as gridded maps (GeoTIFFs) for 36 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods, as well as the background, no storm, conditions).
Data Files
Water_elevation_projections-Golovin.zip - 517.8 MB
Metadata Files
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Wave hazard projections at Golovin, Alaska
Wave hazards (wave heights) from compound coastal hazards—specifically sea-level rise (SLR) and projected coastal storms—are provided for Golovin, Alaska. These products are consistent with other data in this release (for example, flood extent and event-driven erosion; Erikson and others, 2025), supporting integrated coastal hazard assessments for Alaskan communities. The data are provided as gridded maps (GeoTIFFs) for 30 storm and SLR combinations (SLR scenarios 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 meters combined with 1-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year storm return periods).
Data Files
Wave_hazard_projections-Golovin.zip - 631.8 MB
Metadata Files
Wave_hazard_proj_Golovin_metadata.xml - 31.3 KB
Wave_hazard_proj_Golovin_metadata.txt - 30.0 KB
Suggested Citation
Erikson, L.H., Engelstad, A.C., Nederhoff, K., Nereson, A.L., Gibbs, A.E Hayden, M.K., 2025, CoSMoS-AK Modeled Flood and Erosion Hazards at Golovin - Coastal Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P143PXZA.
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