Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast

By Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C. Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya K. Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees M. Nederhoff, Leonard Ohenhen, Andrea O'Neill, Kai A. Parker, Manoocher Shirzaei, Xin Su, Jennifer A. Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean F. Vitousek, Kilian Vos, and Madison C. Yawn



Published: March 15, 2023


This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are derived with the use of atmospheric drivers from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), a widely endorsed study that seeks to improve GCM hurricane modeling and applies a systematic approach to investigate the impact of horizontal resolution on simulating climate variables and hurricanes. Downscaled data products provided as part of this data release include: Projected Flood hazards (28 scenarios of 7 SLRs in combination with 3 storms and daily conditions), storm surge and astronomic tide time-series within the nearshore region for projected future storms (2020-2050), shoreline change time-series (2020-2100); ​depth to water table (7 SLR scenarios)​; and vertical land motion (14 years of historical observations).

Satellite Data

Simulation Data

Suggested Citation

Barnard, P.L., Befus, K., Danielson, J.J., Engelstad, A.C., Erikson, L.H., Foxgrover, A.C., Hayden, M.K., Hoover, D.J., Leijnse, T., Massey, C., McCall, R., Nadal-Caraballo, N., Nederhoff, K., Ohenhen, L., O'Neill, A., Parker, K.A., Shirzaei, M., Su, X., Thomas, J.A., van Ormondt, M., Vitousek, S.F., Vos, K., Yawn, M.C., 2022, Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BQQTCI.