Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast
By Eric E. Grossman, Nathan R. vanArendonk, Sean C. Crosby, Babak Tehranirad, Kees M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, and Jeffrey J. Danielson
https://doi.org/10.5066/P9I08NS5
Dates
Published: Feb. 13, 2024
Data Collected: Dec. 15, 2019 – Dec. 15, 2022
Summary
This product contains several datasets that map exposure to future forecasted hazards related to coastal flooding and extreme wave heights accounting for sea level rise (SLR) and climate change along the Whatcom County coast of northwestern Washington State in the Salish Sea. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and storms account for dynamically downscaled projections of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM3 model forecast of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5-GFDL-CM3) shown to capture important variability in climate of the Pacific Northwest. Data products provided as part of this data release include flood extents, water levels, water depths, flood duration and flow velocities of floods associated with 72 flood hazard scenarios. These scenarios reflect 9 sea level positions ranging between 0 and 5 m and 8 storm recurrence events ranging from daily to the 100-year storm event and account for the combined effects of astronomic tides, storm surge, waves, and stream flows to coastal flooding for the period 2015-2100. The spatial distribution of significant wave heights is also provided for the 8 extreme recurrence events under existing sea level. The validation data used to quantify model performance in the form of measured and simulated storm inundation for a recent flood of record in the study domain at Birch Bay on December 20, 2018 is served. Lastly the model input code, elevation data and necessary boundary conditions are included.
Simulation Data
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Projections of coastal flood extents for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected flood extents associated with compound coastal flood hazards for future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are provided for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of shapefile files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models with atmospheric forcing, tides, sea level position and stream discharge driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting computed coastal flood extents along the Whatcom County coast due to predicted sea level rise and future storm conditions consider the changing climate. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. In the absence of concordant downscaled GCM stream discharge, daily average stream discharge was fed to the model. Outputs include flood extents from the combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). Predicted flood extents during the largest annual astronomic tides (King Tide) in combination with an average storm surge scenario are also provided.
Data Files
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR000.zip - 36.5 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR025.zip - 37.0 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR050.zip - 36.0 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR100.zip - 32.5 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR150.zip - 27.9 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR200.zip - 25.8 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR250.zip - 24.1 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR300.zip - 23.3 MB
Projections_FloodHazard_D1_SLR500.zip - 24.7 MB
Metadata Files
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Projections of coastal flood water levels for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected flood levels associated with compound coastal flood hazards for future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are provided for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of raster geotiff files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models with atmospheric forcing, tides, sea level position and stream discharge driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting computed coastal flood levels along the Whatcom County coast due to predicted sea level rise and future storm conditions consider the changing climate. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. In the absence of concordant downscaled GCM stream discharge, daily average stream discharge was fed to the model. Outputs include flood levels from the combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). Predicted flood levels during the largest annual astronomic tides (King Tide) in combination with an average storm surge scenario are also provided.
Data Files
waterlevel_D1_SLR000_uncertainty.zip - 953.4 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR000.zip - 496.9 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR025_uncertainty.zip - 1.0 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR025.zip - 549.8 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR050_uncertainty.zip - 1.1 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR050.zip - 605.0 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR100_uncertainty.zip - 1.3 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR100.zip - 662.1 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR150_uncertainty.zip - 1.4 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR150.zip - 711.4 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR200_uncertainty.zip - 1.4 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR200.zip - 729.9 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR250_uncertainty.zip - 1.4 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR250.zip - 732.6 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR300_uncertainty.zip - 1.4 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR300.zip - 747.1 MB
waterlevel_D1_SLR500_uncertainty.zip - 1.3 GB
waterlevel_D1_SLR500.zip - 693.0 MB
Metadata Files
waterlevel_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 30.7 KB
waterlevel_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 29.5 KB
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Projections of coastal flood depths for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected flood depths associated with compound coastal flood hazards for future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are provided for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of raster geotiff files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models with atmospheric forcing, tides, sea level position and stream discharge driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting computed coastal flood depths along the Whatcom County coast due to predicted sea level rise and future storm conditions consider the changing climate. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. In the absence of concordant downscaled GCM stream discharge, daily average stream discharge was fed to the model. Outputs include flood depths from the combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). Predicted flood depths during the largest annual astronomic tides (King Tide) in combination with an average storm surge scenario are also provided.
Data Files
waterdepth_D1_SLR000_uncertainty.zip - 1.8 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR000.zip - 917.9 MB
waterdepth_D1_SLR025_uncertainty.zip - 2.1 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR025.zip - 1.0 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR050_uncertainty.zip - 2.4 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR050.zip - 1.2 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR100_uncertainty.zip - 2.8 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR100.zip - 1.5 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR150_uncertainty.zip - 3.2 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR150.zip - 1.6 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR200_uncertainty.zip - 3.5 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR200.zip - 1.8 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR250_uncertainty.zip - 3.7 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR250.zip - 1.8 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR300_uncertainty.zip - 3.8 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR300.zip - 1.9 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR500_uncertainty.zip - 4.3 GB
waterdepth_D1_SLR500.zip - 2.1 GB
Metadata Files
waterdepth_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 30.7 KB
waterdepth_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 29.6 KB
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Projections of coastal flood durations for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected flood duration associated with compound coastal flood hazards for future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are provided for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of raster geotiff files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models with atmospheric forcing, tides, sea level position and stream discharge driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting computed coastal flood duration along the Whatcom County coast due to predicted sea level rise and future storm conditions consider the changing climate. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. In the absence of concordant downscaled GCM stream discharge, daily average stream discharge was fed to the model. Outputs include flood durations from the combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). Predicted flood duration during the largest annual astronomic tides (King Tide) in combination with an average storm surge scenario are also provided.
Data Files
duration_D1_SLR000_uncertainty.zip - 1.5 GB
duration_D1_SLR000.zip - 782.1 MB
duration_D1_SLR025_uncertainty.zip - 1.7 GB
duration_D1_SLR025.zip - 877.1 MB
duration_D1_SLR050_uncertainty.zip - 1.9 GB
duration_D1_SLR050.zip - 997.0 MB
duration_D1_SLR100_uncertainty.zip - 2.2 GB
duration_D1_SLR100.zip - 1.1 GB
duration_D1_SLR150_uncertainty.zip - 2.5 GB
duration_D1_SLR150.zip - 1.3 GB
duration_D1_SLR200_uncertainty.zip - 2.7 GB
duration_D1_SLR200.zip - 1.3 GB
duration_D1_SLR250_uncertainty.zip - 2.8 GB
duration_D1_SLR250.zip - 1.4 GB
duration_D1_SLR300_uncertainty.zip - 2.9 GB
duration_D1_SLR300.zip - 1.4 GB
duration_D1_SLR500_uncertainty.zip - 3.2 GB
duration_D1_SLR500.zip - 1.6 GB
Metadata Files
duration_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 30.5 KB
duration_D1_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 29.4 KB
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Projections of coastal flood velocities for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected flood velocities associated with compound coastal flood hazards for future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are provided for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of raster geotiff files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models with atmospheric forcing, tides, sea level position and stream discharge driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting computed coastal flood velocities along the Whatcom County coast due to predicted sea level rise and future storm conditions consider the changing climate. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. In the absence of concordant downscaled GCM stream discharge, daily average stream discharge was fed to the model. Outputs include flood velocities from the combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). Predicted flood velocities during the largest annual astronomic tides (King Tide) in combination with an average storm surge scenario are also provided.
Data Files
velocity_D1_SLR000_uncertainty.zip - 1.7 GB
velocity_D1_SLR000.zip - 870.4 MB
velocity_D1_SLR025_uncertainty.zip - 2.0 GB
velocity_D1_SLR025.zip - 992.3 MB
velocity_D1_SLR050_uncertainty.zip - 2.2 GB
velocity_D1_SLR050.zip - 1.1 GB
velocity_D1_SLR100_uncertainty.zip - 2.6 GB
velocity_D1_SLR100.zip - 1.3 GB
velocity_D1_SLR150_uncertainty.zip - 2.9 GB
velocity_D1_SLR150.zip - 1.5 GB
velocity_D1_SLR200_uncertainty.zip - 3.1 GB
velocity_D1_SLR200.zip - 1.6 GB
velocity_D1_SLR250_uncertainty.zip - 3.3 GB
velocity_D1_SLR250.zip - 1.7 GB
velocity_D1_SLR300_uncertainty.zip - 3.4 GB
velocity_D1_SLR300.zip - 1.7 GB
velocity_D1_SLR500_uncertainty.zip - 3.8 GB
velocity_D1_SLR500.zip - 1.9 GB
Metadata Files
velocity_D1_ CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 30.8 KB
velocity_D1_ CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 29.7 KB
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Projections of wave heights for Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast (2015-2100)
Projected wave heights associated with compound coastal flood hazards for existing and future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm scenarios are shown for Whatcom County, Washington, in a series of raster geotiff files. Projections were made using a system of numerical models driven by output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The resulting data are water levels of projected flood hazards along the Whatcom County coast due to sea level rise and plausible future storm conditions that consider the changing climate and natural variability. In addition to sea-level rise, flood simulations run by these numerical models included dynamic contributions from tide, storm surge, wind, waves, river discharge, and seasonal sea-level fluctuations. Outputs include waves from combinations of SLR scenarios (0, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 5.0 m) storm conditions including 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year and 100-year return interval storms and a background condition (no storm - astronomic tide and average atmospheric conditions). The annual average King Tide is also provided and includes mean storm surge occurring during King Tides.
Data Files
D1_waveGEV_Raster.zip - 12.9 MB
Metadata Files
D1_waveGEV_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 24.3 KB
D1_waveGEV_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 23.5 KB
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CoSMoS Whatcom County model input files
This data set consists of physics-based XBeach and SFINCS hydrodynamic model input files used for Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) Tier 3 simulations. This data release is for Whatcom County in Washington State and presents the final tier 3 models used to produce output data that is then post-processed into final CoSMoS products. Example model input and configuration files are included for a single domain and SLR scenario, with the full modelling framework iterating on this process to simulate hundreds of individual storm events and sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios.
Data Files
model_setup_tier3_CoSMoS_WA_Whatcom.zip - 2.1 GB
Metadata Files
model_setup_tier3_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.xml - 21.5 KB
model_setup_tier3_CoSMoS_WA_metadata.txt - 20.7 KB
Suggested Citation
Grossman, E.E., vanArendonk, N.R., Crosby, S.C., Tehranirad, B., Nederhoff, K., Barnard, P.L., Erikson, L., and Danielson, J.J., 2024, Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast. U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9I08NS5.
Overview Image
