USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program
Over the last century, relative sea-level rise rates along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. have ranged between 1.8 mm/yr (Maine) to as much as 4.4 mm/yr (Virginia, Table 1; Zervas, 2001). The lowest rates (~1.8 mm/yr) are nearly equivalent to the average global rate for the 20th century of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr (Bindoff and others, 2007) and occur along coastal New England and from Georgia to southern Florida. The highest rates have been observed in the mid-Atlantic region between northern New Jersey and northeastern North Carolina (Table 1; Zervas, 2004). Subsidence of the land surface due to a range of factors contributes to the high rates of relative sea-level rise observed in this region. It is believed that the subsidence is attributable mainly to glacio-isostatic adjustments of the earth's crust in response to the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet, and to the compaction of sediments due to freshwater withdrawal from coastal aquifers (Gornitz and Lebedeff, 1987; Emery and Aubrey, 1991; Peltier, 2001). Table 1. Rates of Relative Sea-Level Rise for Selected Long-Term Tide Gauges on the East Coast of the United States (Zervas, 2001).
|
With the anticipated acceleration in the rate of global sea-level rise (e.g., IPCC 2001; 2007), local rates of relative sea-level rise will also accelerate. Recently, the Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) of the IPCC has predicted that sea level will rise by 10-59 cm over the next century (Meehl and others, 2007), which is a somewhat smaller rise and range than reported in the Third Assessment Report (TAR; IPCC, 2001; estimate 11-88 cm) (Church and others, 2001). Several recent criticisms of the FAR estimates of future sea-level changes (Rahmstorf, 2007; Rahmstorf and others, 2007; Hansen and others, 2007) argue that these estimates are conservative and do not incorporate adequately the potential contributions of land-based ice melt from Greenland and western Antarctica to global sea level. The IPCC assessment concludes that the science regarding future acceleration in ice melt and its contribution to sea-level rise is not yet sufficient to include in their sea-level projections.