Hindcast (1981-2010) and projected (2011-2100) coastal storm events, including duration, wave conditions, and storm surges in the vicinity of Arey Lagoon and Barter Island, Alaska

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
Hindcast (1981-2010) and projected (2011-2100) coastal storm events, including duration, wave conditions, and storm surges in the vicinity of Arey Lagoon and Barter Island, Alaska
Abstract:
Numerically modeled ocean storm conditions of hindcast (1981-2010) and projected (2011-2100) storm events in the nearshore region of Arey Lagoon, Alaska. Storms were identified from time-series of dynamically downscaled deep-water wave conditions using WaveWatch3 (WW3) and nearshore storm surges using the Deltares Delft3D model. A storm was defined as having offshore water wave heights >= 2 meters (m) and storm surges >=0 m. The data in this file provide a listing of individual storm dates, storm duration, and the maximum offshore wave heights and resulting nearshore wave conditions (seas and swell) and storm surges associated with each storm. A series of hindcast and projected flooding extreme and decadal flood maps are also available.
Supplemental_Information:
Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Erikson, Li H., Gibbs, Ann E., Richmond, Bruce M., Jones, Benjamin M., Storlazzi, Curt D., and Ohman, Karin A., 20201207, Hindcast (1981-2010) and projected (2011-2100) coastal storm events, including duration, wave conditions, and storm surges in the vicinity of Arey Lagoon and Barter Island, Alaska: data release DOI:10.5066/P9LGYO2Q, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Erikson, Li H., Gibbs, Ann E., Richmond, Bruce M., Jones, Benjamin M., Storlazzi, Curt D., and Ohman, Karin A., 2020, Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards, and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity: data release DOI:10.5066/P9LGYO2Q, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -144.014864
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -143.666509
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 70.114203
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 70.028589
  3. What does it look like?
    https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/5ee99cc682ce3bd58d851afd?name= BTI_FloodingExtremesExample_2000to2049.jpg&allowOpen=true (jpg)
    Example map of projected flooding extremes for the years 2000 to 2049 in the vicinity of Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Beginning_Date: 01-Jan-1981
    Ending_Date: 31-Dec-2100
    Currentness_Reference:
    publication date
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: comma-delimited text
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      This is a Point data set. It contains the following vector data types (SDTS terminology):
      • Point (519)
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Horizontal positions are specified in geographic coordinates, that is, latitude and longitude. Latitudes are given to the nearest 0.00001. Longitudes are given to the nearest 0.00001. Latitude and longitude values are specified in Decimal degrees. The horizontal datum used is WGS84.
      The ellipsoid used is WGS84.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.0.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257223563.
      Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition:
      Altitude_System_Definition:
      Altitude_Datum_Name:
      approximate local Mean Sea Level as determined from 3 months of measurements
      Altitude_Resolution: 0.01
      Altitude_Distance_Units: meters
      Altitude_Encoding_Method:
      Explicit elevation coordinate included with horizontal coordinates
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    BTI_WavesAndStormSurges_1981-2100.csv
    Hindcast and projected wave and storm surge data (Source: Producer defined)
    start_date_of_storm_month
    Start date of storm month (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:6
    Maximum:11
    Units:Month
    Resolution:1
    start_date_of_storm_day
    Start date of storm day (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:1
    Maximum:31
    Units:Day
    Resolution:1
    start_date_of_storm_year
    Start date of storm year (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:1981
    Maximum:2100
    Units:Year
    Resolution:1
    end_date_of_storm_month
    End date of storm month (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:7
    Maximum:11
    Units:Month
    Resolution:1
    end_date_of_storm_day
    End date of storm day (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:1
    Maximum:31
    Units:Day
    Resolution:1
    end_date_of_storm_year
    End date of storm year (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:1981
    Maximum:2100
    Units:Year
    Resolution:1
    Hso(m)
    Offshore significant wave height (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:2
    Maximum:6.3
    Units:meters
    Resolution:0.01
    Hs(m)
    Nearshore significant wave height (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0.6
    Maximum:4.4
    Units:meters
    Resolution:0.01
    Dp(deg)
    Wave direction at peak period (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:15
    Maximum:355
    Units:degrees from true north nautical coordinates
    Resolution:1
    Tp(s)
    Peak wave period (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:2.7
    Maximum:13.8
    Units:seconds
    Resolution:0.1
    SS(m)
    Positive storm surge meters relative to ~2010 mean sea level (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0
    Maximum:2.02
    Units:meters
    Resolution:0.01
    Storm_duration(days)
    Storm duration (Source: Producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0.5
    Maximum:9.6
    Units:days
    Resolution:0.1
    Hindcast_or_projection
    Model type (Source: Producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    HindcastHindcast values for the years 1981 to 2010
    ProjectedProjected values for the years 2011-2100
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview: The first line of the csv file is a header line.
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation: U.S. Geological Survey

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Li H. Erikson
    • Ann E. Gibbs
    • Bruce M. Richmond
    • Benjamin M. Jones
    • Curt D. Storlazzi
    • Karin A. Ohman
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
    Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

Data were generated to estimate future ocean storm conditions (magnitude and frequency), coastal flooding potentials, and barrier island migration rates, for the 21st century and assess changes with respect to past conditions.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    CMIP5 (source 1 of 4)
    Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., and Meehl, G.A., 2012, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, online.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J., and Meehl, G.A., 2012, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 93, no. 4, p. 485-498.
    Type_of_Source_Media: Digital Resources
    Source_Contribution: Source was used in the numerical model
    NARR dataset (source 2 of 4)
    Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P.C., Ebisuzaki, W., Jovi, D., Woollen, J., Rogers, E., Berbery, E.H., Ek, M.B., Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H., Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W., 2006, North American Regional Reanalysis: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, online.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P.C. , Ebisuzaki, W., Jovi?, D. , Woollen, J. Rogers, E., Berbery, E.H., Ek, M.B. , Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H. , Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W., 2006, North American Regional Reanalysis: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 87, p. 343-360.
    Type_of_Source_Media: Digital Resources
    Source_Contribution: Source was used in the numerical model
    Wave projections (source 3 of 4)
    Erikson, L.H., Hegermiller, C.E., Barnard, P.L., and Storlazzi, C.D., 2016, Wave Projections for United States Mainland Coasts: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: Digital Resources
    Source_Contribution:
    Wave projection data were used as boundary conditions to the numerical modeling done as part of the Arey/BTI study.
    Alaska regional DEM (source 4 of 4)
    Danielson, S., Johnson, M., Solomon, S., and Perrie, W., 2008, Gridded Bathymetric Dataset Based on Ship Soundings. A research tool for the waters of eastern Russia, Alaska & western Canada: University of Alaska, Fairbanks, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: Digital Resources
    Source_Contribution:
    The Alaska regional DEM was used to populate the bathymetry of the larger scale numerical models beyond the extents of the DEM produced as part of this study.
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 20-Oct-2011 (process 1 of 4)
    See Erikson others (2020) for detailed information on model development. Numerical models were used to quantify the frequency and magnitude of wave conditions, storm surge, and coastal flooding. Time- and space-varying wind and atmospheric sea-level pressure fields, generated with regional model and reanalysis products and global climate models (GCMs), were obtained from outside sources (see Source Information). Ten-meter-elevation winds were applied to two-dimensional surfaces of WaveWatchIII (WW3) and SWAN model grids. Both WW3 and SWAN models are third-generation, physics-based spectral wave averaging models; these models were used to simulate the generation and propagation of waves in the Beaufort Sea to the study site. The WW3 global grid (resolution 1 degree by 1.25 degree, maximum northern latitude of 78degrees) was used to simulate hourly time-series of deepwater waves. Waves generated with the WW3 global model were incorporated into the open boundaries (edges of the model domain) of the SWAN model to ensure that long-component waves generated from distant storms were included in the simulations. The SWAN model used three nested, curvilinear grids with a resolution ranging from 1 kilometer at the continental shelf to less than 30 meters in the area of Arey Island and Lagoon. Bathymetry and elevation data (Arey Lagoon DEM) were used to populate the grids near the study site. Storm surge and hydrodynamics were modeled with the Deltares Delft3D (D3D). Three D3D FLOW grids were used to generate storm surge. The D3D model was run in a depth-averaged mode and dynamically coupled with the SWAN model to simulate surf zone longshore currents and cross-shore wave setup. The D3D module was forced with the same wind-fields used in the SWAN simulations as well as space and time-varying sea-level pressure fields covering the entire domains. D3D grid bathymetry was developed from the same depth data sources as used for the SWAN model. Wind, sea-level pressure, and sea-ice extent from reanalysis products and GCMs were used to provide boundary conditions and force the wave and storm surge model simulations. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset provided spatial- and time-varying wind, sea-level pressure, and sea-ice extent for the years 1981 through 2010. NARR is an atmosphere and land surface hydrology dataset of the North American domain developed from a reanalysis of NCEP/NCAR’s global models. The reanalysis is based on the addition and assimilation of observational data from monitoring stations, radiosondes, satellites, aircraft reports, and other sources. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the NARR dataset are 32 kilometers and 3 hours, respectively. Projected coastal storm events were derived by downscaling atmospheric conditions of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario with the MIROC5 global climate model (GCM). Sea ice retreat distances were estimated from 4 separate GCMs: MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, GFDL-CM3. Sea-ice extent for the hindcast period 1981-2010 were obtained from NOAA OAR ESRL PSD sea ice maps. Sea-ice extents from 2011 to the end of the 21st century were obtained from four GCMs (MIROC5, BCC-CSM1.1, INM-CM4, GFDL-CM3; Taylor and others 2012). Data sources used in this process:
    • CMIP5
    • NARR dataset
    • Wave projections
    • Alaska regional DEM
    Date: 20-Oct-2011 (process 2 of 4)
    Models were run using atmospheric forcings described above. The 25-year return period and maximum water levels in the nearshore were calculated for the time-periods 1981-2010, 2000-2050, 2051-2100, and decadal intervals, and applied at the open boundaries of a 10mx10m resolution model to simulate overland flow. The maximum depths and extents of the modeled overland flows are presented as extreme flood maps. The vertical resolution of the model simulations is +/-1cm; the uncertainty is less than +/-30 cm for the DEM and +/-15 cm for the modeled water levels as estimated from comparisons to measured water levels in Arey Lagoon.
    Date: 20-Oct-2011 (process 3 of 4)
    Decadal flood maps were produced that show the area that is flooded at least two times per month due to astronomic tides, storm surges, and sea level rise; these maps were generated to provide a sense of decadal changes in monthly flood extents that might be expected to maintain halophytic vegetation. The maps were generated by extracting the second highest nearshore modeled water level of each month that had more than 21 days (~70 percent) of open water. Median values of all such water levels for each decade were calculated and applied at the open boundary of a 10mx10m resolution model to simulate overland flow. The depths and extents of the modeled overland flows are presented as decadal flood maps. The vertical resolution of the model simulations are +/-1cm; the uncertainty is less than +/-30 cm for the DEM and +/-15 cm for the modeled. Data sources used in this process:
    • CMIP5
    • NARR dataset
    • Wave projections
    • Alaska regional DEM
    • NOAA OAR ESRL PSD sea ice maps
    Date: 13-Oct-2021 (process 4 of 4)
    Performed minor edits to the metadata to correct typos. No data were changed Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Susan A. Cochran
    Geologist
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-460-7545 (voice)
    scochran@usgs.gov
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Erikson, Li H., Gibbs, Ann E., Richmond, Bruce M., Storlazzi, Curt D., Jones, Benjamin M., and Ohman, Karin A., 2020, Changing Storm Conditions in Response to Projected 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios and the Potential Impact on an Arctic Barrier Island Lagoon System: A Pilot Study for Arey Island and Lagoon, Eastern Arctic Alaska.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Erikson, L.H., Gibbs, A.E., Richmond, B.M., Storlazzi, C.D., Jones, B.M., and Ohman, K.A., 2020, Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File report 2020-1142

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    A formal accuracy assessment was not conducted. Results are within the expected range. Numerically modeled water levels and waves were compared to field observations collected in 2011.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    Numerically modeled water levels and waves were compared to field observations collected in 2011. Root-mean-square differences are 5 cm and 9 cm for cumulative probability comparisons between modeled and observed wave heights and water levels, respectively. Note however, that measured (and simulated) waves and water levels were somewhat low with maximum significant wave heights slightly lower than 100 centimeters and maximum water levels slightly less than 30 centimeters.
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    Dataset is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have been checked for duplications and omissions.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints: None
Use_Constraints:
USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? These data are available in csv format contained in a single zip file which also includes CSDGM FGDC compliant metadata, an example results map. Decadal Flood Maps and Flood Map Extremes in .tif format are also contained in separate zip files within the larger zip file.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
  4. How can I download or order the data?
  5. What hardware or software do I need in order to use the data set?
    These data can be viewed with any text reading software.

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 13-Oct-2021
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, CA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/pcmsc/DataReleases/ScienceBase/DR_P9LGYO2Q/BTI_WavesAndStormSurges_1981-2100_metadata.faq.html>
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