Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise
Abstract:
This dataset contains spatial projections of coastal cliff retreat (and associated uncertainty) for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR) in Central California. Present-day cliff-edge positions used as the baseline for projections are also included. Projections were made using numerical models and field observations such as historical cliff retreat rate, nearshore slope, coastal cliff height, and mean annual wave power, as part of Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). Read metadata and references carefully. Details: Cliff-retreat position projections and associated uncertainties are for scenarios of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.92, 1, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2, 2.5, 3.0 and 5 meters of SLR. Projections were made at CoSMoS cross-shore transects (CST) spaced 100-200 m alongshore using a baseline sea-cliff edge from 2016 (included in the dataset). Within the zip file, there are two separate datasets available: 1) one that ignores coastal armoring, such as seawalls and revetments, and allows the cliff to retreat unimpeded (“Do Not Hold the Line”); and 2) another that assumes that current coastal armoring will be maintained and 100% effective at stopping future cliff erosion ("Hold the Line"). An ensemble of four numerical models synthesized from literature were used to make projections. All models relate breaking-wave height and period to cliff rock or unconsolidated sediment erosion. As sea level rises, waves break closer to the sea cliff, more wave energy impacts the cliffs, and cliff erosion rates accelerate. The final projections are a weighted average of all models (weighted by model performance), and the final uncertainties are proportional to 1) underlying uncertainties in the model input data, such as historical cliff retreat rates, and 2) the differences between individual model forecasts at each CST so that uncertainty is larger when the models do not agree. Uncertainty represents the 95% confidence level (two standard deviations about the mean projection). Model behavior also includes wave run-up and wave set-up that raises the water level during big-wave events. Please refer to Limber and others (2018) for more detailed information on the model and data sources.
Supplemental_Information:
This work is one portion of ongoing modeling efforts for California and the western United States. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/cosmos/ Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata file is intended to document the data set in nonproprietary form, as well as in ESRI format, this metadata file may include some ESRI-specific terminology.
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Limber, Patrick W., and Barnard, Patrick L., 2018, Central California CoSMoS v3.1 projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise: data release DOI:10.5066/P9NUO62B, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Barnard, Patrick L., Erikson, Li H., Foxgrover, Amy C., Limber, Patrick W., O'Neill, Andrea C., and Vitousek, Sean, 2018, Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California v3.1: data release DOI:10.5066/P9NUO62B, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.70
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -120.42
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 37.82
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 34.42
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Beginning_Date: 10-Oct-2017
    Ending_Date: 01-Jun-2018
    Currentness_Reference:
    oldest dataset used through publication date
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form:
    Cliff retreat projections in Google Earth KMZ and ESRI shapefile formats
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Grid_Coordinate_System_Name: Universal Transverse Mercator
      Universal_Transverse_Mercator:
      UTM_Zone_Number: 10
      Transverse_Mercator:
      Scale_Factor_at_Central_Meridian: 0.999600
      Longitude_of_Central_Meridian: -100.000000
      Latitude_of_Projection_Origin: 0.000000
      False_Easting: 500000.000000
      False_Northing: 0.000000
      Planar coordinates are encoded using row and column
      Abscissae (x-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 0.000001
      Ordinates (y-coordinates) are specified to the nearest 0.000001
      Planar coordinates are specified in meters
      The horizontal datum used is North American Datum 1983.
      The ellipsoid used is Geodetic Reference System 80.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.000000.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257222.
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    Central California (Central CA) CoSMoS projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise
    shapefiles (in a layer package) consisting of projected coastal cliff positions and uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios, in addition to baseline positions and historical retreat rates used in model (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    SLR__cm
    sea-level rise (SLR) scenario in centimeters for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:25
    Maximum:500
    Units:centimeters
    Resolution:25
    POINT_X
    Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) longitude coordinate for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named (Source: UTM coordinate system)
    Range of values
    Minimum:542392.442328
    Maximum:730136.315183
    Units:meters
    Resolution:0.000001
    POINT_Y
    Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) latitude coordinate for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named (Source: UTM coordinate system)
    Range of values
    Minimum:3819875.80194
    Maximum:4183594.31394
    Units:meters
    Resolution:0.000001
    Cosmos_ID
    Unique ID number for each CoSMoS model output location (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:4809
    Maximum:8040
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    hist_ER
    Historical coastal cliff retreat rate, calculated between the 1930’s (depending on location) and 2016 (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0.01
    Maximum:1.6055
    Units:meters per year
    Resolution:0.0001
    Central California (Central CA) CoSMoS projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise
    Google Earth KMZ file consisting of projected coastal cliff positions (displayed as 'points' or 'lines') for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    SLR__cm
    sea-level rise (SLR) scenario in centimeters for "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:25
    Maximum:500
    Units:centimeters
    Resolution:25
    Cosmos_ID
    Unique ID number for each CoSMoS model output location (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:4809
    Maximum:8040
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    Sea Cliff retreat projection uncertainty
    Google Earth KMZ file consisting of projected coastal cliff positions uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea-level rise scenarios (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    SLR__cm
    sea-level rise (SLR) scenario in centimeters (Source: producer defined)
    ValueDefinition
    ScenarioUncertainty in projected coastal cliff position for sea-level rise scenario and "Hold the line" or "No Hold the line" conditions as named
    Baseline
    Google Earth KMZ file consisting of baseline cliff positions and historical retreat rates (Source: originators at United States Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center)
    Cosmos_ID
    Unique ID number for each CoSMoS model output location (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:4809
    Maximum:8040
    Units:NA
    Resolution:1
    hist_ER
    Historical coastal cliff retreat rate, calculated between the 1930’s (depending on location) and 2016 (Source: producer defined)
    Range of values
    Minimum:0.01
    Maximum:1.6055
    Units:meters per year
    Resolution:0.0001

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Patrick W. Limber
    • Patrick L. Barnard
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, California
    USA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data provide an estimate of coastal geomorphic change in response to SLR during the 21st century and are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, students, and the general public. These data can be used with geographic information systems or other software to identify and assess possible areas of vulnerability and are not intended to be used for navigation.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    16DEM (source 1 of 2)
    U.S. Geological Survey, 2017, 2016 USGS cest coast El-Nino lidar DEM (WA, OR, CA): NOAA Digital Coast, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    A continuous sea cliff edge was digitized from the 2016 lidar DEM. The cliff edge was then used 1) to calculate long-term cliff retreat rates and 2) as the baseline from which future projections of cliff retreat were made.
    TSHEET (source 2 of 2)
    Hapke, C., Reid, D., and Borelli, M., 2007, The National Assessment of Shoreline Change; a GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online
    Source_Contribution:
    Cliff edges were used to calculate historical long-term rates of cliff retreat
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 01-Oct-2017 (process 1 of 6)
    Historical sea cliff retreat rates were established using cliff edge positions from the 1930’s (TSHEETS) and 2016 (16DEM). Data sources used in this process:
    • TSHEETS
    • 16DEM
    Date: 01-Nov-2017 (process 2 of 6)
    Extracted cross-shore profiles, cliff toe elevations, and beach slopes from 16DEM. Data sources used in this process:
    • 16DEM
    Date: 01-Dec-2017 (process 3 of 6)
    Ran multi-model ensemble with wave forcing and various SLR scenarios to project future cliff positions. Historical retreat rates, cliff toe elevation, beach slopes, and cliff height discussed above were used as inputs to the model ensemble. Data sources used in this process:
    • TSHEETS
    • 16DEM
    Date: 01-May-2018 (process 4 of 6)
    Model output and uncertainty were mapped. Visual and statistical QA/QC was performed to identify and correct data that did not meet quality control standards. Output processed for use in CoSMoS
    Date: 19-Oct-2020 (process 5 of 6)
    Edited metadata to add keywords section with USGS persistent identifier as theme keyword. No data were changed. Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: VeeAnn A. Cross
    Marine Geologist
    384 Woods Hole Road
    Woods Hole, MA

    508-548-8700 x2251 (voice)
    508-457-2310 (FAX)
    vatnipp@usgs.gov
    Date: 13-Oct-2021 (process 6 of 6)
    Performed minor edits to the metadata to correct typos. No data were changed. Person who carried out this activity:
    U.S. Geological Survey
    Attn: Susan A. Cochran
    Geologist
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-460-7545 (voice)
    scochran@usgs.gov
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Limber, P. W., Barnard, P. L., Vitousek, S., and Erikson, L. H., 2018, A model ensemble for projecting multi-decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Limber, P.W., Barnard, P.L., Vitousek, S., and Erikson, L.H, 2018, A model ensemble for projecting multi-decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century: Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface, v. 123, p.1566-1589, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004401

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    Attribute values are estimates of sea-cliff retreat and uncertainty due to plausible future sea-level rise scenarios and therefore cannot be cross-checked with observations, because observations do not exist. The projections were generated using up-to-date statistical and numerical methods and are in line with projections made by previous researchers. Uncertainty bands are included that take into account the positional accuracy of the geospatial data used to calibrate the numerical models, statistical agreement between different models used to generate the projections, and variations of the projections caused by varying initial conditions (a sensitivity analysis).
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    A formal accuracy assessment of the projections was conducted for each model output location. The horizontal accuracy (or uncertainty) for each model output point is included within this geospatial dataset and was determined at the 95 percent confidence level.
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    N/A
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    These geospatial projections are complete. Any gaps in these data, if applicable, are a consequence of nonexisting data or existing data that did not meet quality assurance standards. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record and references carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have undergone QA/QC and fall within expected/reasonable ranges. It is possible to have polygons that overlap.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints: none
Use_Constraints:
USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO
    USA

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? These data are available in ESRI shapefile format contained in ArcGIS layer packages and in Google KMZ formats. Each management scenario (‘Hold the Line’ and ‘Let It Go’) is packaged in a separate layer package or KMZ file. CSDGM FGDC-compliant metadata is zipped with the dataset.
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
  4. How can I download or order the data?

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 13-Oct-2021
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, California
USA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/pcmsc/DataReleases/ScienceBase/DR_P9NUO62B/CoastalCliff_projections_CenCal_CoSMoS_3.1_metadata.faq.html>
Generated by mp version 2.9.50 on Thu Oct 14 14:47:22 2021