Salish Sea water level simulation projections: 2016-2099

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Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title: Salish Sea water level simulation projections: 2016-2099
Abstract:
Simulations of the period 2016-2099 were conducted using the Salish Sea hydrodynamic model to evaluate extreme water levels associated with anticipated changes in sea level and climate forcing. The model projections accounting for sea level position, tides, remote sea-level anomalies, local winds and storm surge and stream flows as they affect water density. Dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) CMIP5 GFDL wind and atmospheric pressure fields were prescribed over the model open boundary and used to compute sea-level anomaly prescribed at the model ocean boundary. Simulations were made for eight different Sea-Level Rise (SLR) conditions, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 5 meters relative to current conditions (1983-2001 epoch) and provided as time-series outputs along the -5 m depth isobath. Model inputs are also provided.
Supplemental_Information:
This work is part of the ongoing coastal hazard modeling efforts for the State of Washington. For more information on CoSMoS implementation, see https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pcmsc/science/ps-cosmos-puget-sound-coastal-storm-modeling-system. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Grossman, Eric E, Tehranirad, Babak, Stevens, Andrew W, VanArendonk, Nathan R, Crosby, Sean, and Nederhoff, Kees, 20231211, Salish Sea water level simulation projections: 2016-2099: data release DOI: 10.5066/P946SC3L, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, California.

    Online Links:

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Grossman, Eric E, Tehranirad, Babak, Stevens, Andrew W, VanArendonk, Nathan R, Crosby, Sean, and Nederhoff, Kees, 2023, Salish Sea Hydrodynamic Model: data release DOI:10.5066/P946SC3L, U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Suggested Citation: Grossman, E.E., Tehranirad, B., Stevens, A.W., VanArendonk, N.R., Crosby, S., and Nederhoff, K., 2023, Salish Sea Hydrodynamic Model: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P946SC3L.
  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -129.1400
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -122.1500
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 51.5700
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 47.0000
  3. What does it look like?
    https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/file/get/63acc990d34e92aad3ca1502?name=REMOVE.jpg&allowOpen=true (JPEG)
    REMOVE
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Beginning_Date: 01-Oct-2015
    Ending_Date: 30-Sep-2099
    Currentness_Reference:
    time period for which the data were modeled
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: netCDF
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
      Indirect_Spatial_Reference:
      Zip files containing modeled extreme water levels along the -5 m isobath
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
      Horizontal positions are specified in geographic coordinates, that is, latitude and longitude. Latitudes are given to the nearest 0.001. Longitudes are given to the nearest 0.001. Latitude and longitude values are specified in Decimal degrees. The horizontal datum used is North American Datum of 1983.
      The ellipsoid used is Geodetic Reference System 80.
      The semi-major axis of the ellipsoid used is 6378137.000000.
      The flattening of the ellipsoid used is 1/298.257222.
      Vertical_Coordinate_System_Definition:
      Altitude_System_Definition:
      Altitude_Datum_Name: North American Vertical Datum of 1988
      Altitude_Resolution: 0.01
      Altitude_Distance_Units: meters
      Altitude_Encoding_Method:
      Explicit elevation coordinate included with horizontal coordinates
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    netCDF files are self-contained and attribute information may be found in the header of the file itself. Attributes are latitude and longitude for each location, as well as significant water level time-series, tidal constituents' phases and amplitudes, and model input samples.
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation: U.S. Geological Survey

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Eric E Grossman
    • Babak Tehranirad
    • Andrew W Stevens
    • Nathan R VanArendonk
    • Sean Crosby
    • Kees Nederhoff
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
    2885 Mission Street
    Santa Cruz, CA

    831-427-4747 (voice)
    pcmsc_data@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data are intended for policy makers, resource managers, science researchers, students, and the general public. These data are not intended to be used for navigation.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
    Tyler and others (2020) (source 1 of 2)
    Tyler, D.J., Danielson, J.J., Grossman, E.E., and Hockenberry, R.J., 2020, Topobathymetric Model of Puget Sound, Washington, 1887 to 2017: U.S. Geological Survey, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: Elevations and bathymetry for US waters
    CMIP5 (source 2 of 2)
    CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, 2021, CMIP5 Wind and Sea Level Pressure Maps: CMIP5, online.

    Online Links:

    Type_of_Source_Media: online database
    Source_Contribution: atmospheric and oceanic climate variables projections
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 30-Jun-2021 (process 1 of 2)
    A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM) modeling suite (Deltares, 2020) was used to simulate water levels between October 1, 2016 and September 30, 2099. The model was configured and validated following Grossman and others (XXXX-manuscript) and Grossman and others (2017-2020 validation simulations, this same data release). Oceanic boundaries were forced using astronomic tidal constituents derived from the satellite-derived FES 2012 global tide model (Lyard and others, 2006) and sea-level anomaly was prescribed on the marine boundary using a sea-level anomaly predictor described in Grossman and others (XXXX) and Grossman and others (1985-2015 hindcast simulations, this same data release). Hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields from the 12-km dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) CMIP5 GFDL model (Mass and others, 2022) were prescribed on the open boundary and to compute the SLA prescribed at the ocean boundary. Roughness values were calibrated to optimize tidal propagation. Data sources used in this process:
    • CMIP5
    Date: 15-Dec-2021 (process 2 of 2)
    Annual Maxima/Generalized Extreme Value (AM/GEV) and peak-over-threshold/Generalized Pareto Distribution (POT/GPD) analyses following Coles and others (2001) were conducted on the simulated 2016-2099 water level results along the -5m isobath to estimate water level extreme recurrence. Water levels associated with the daily, annual, 5-yr, 10-yr, 20-yr, 50-yr and 100-yr recurrence for the time period 2016-2099 were computed for plausible sea level rise scenarios of 0m, 0.25m, 0.50m, 1.00m, 1.50m, 2.00m, 3.00m, and 5.00m anticipated by the year 2100.
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Grossman, Eric E, Tehranirad, Babak, Nederhoff, Kees, Crosby, Sean, Stevens, Andrew W, VanArendonk, Nathan R, Nowacki, Daniel, Erikson, Li, and Barnard, Patrick, 2023, Modeling extreme water levels in the Salish Sea: A new method for estimating sea level anomalies for application in hydrodynamic simulations.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Grossman, E.E., Tehranirad, B., Nederhoff, C.M., Crosby, S.C., Stevens, A.W., Van Arendonk, N.R., Nowacki, D.J., Erikson, L.H., Barnard, P.L. Modeling Extreme Water Levels in the Salish Sea: The Importance of Including Remote Sea Level Anomalies for Application in Hydrodynamic Simulations. Water 2023, 15, 4167. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15234167.
    Deltares, 2020, D-Flow Flexible Mesh User Manual (version 0.9.1).

    Online Links:

    Lyard, Florent, Lefevre, Fabien, Letellier, Thierry, and Francis, Oliver, 2006, Modelling the global ocean tides: modern insights from FES2004.

    Online Links:

    Mass, C., Salathe, E., Steed, E., and Baars, J., 2022, Modeling extreme water levels in the Salish Sea: A new method for estimating sea level anomalies for application in hydrodynamic simulations.

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Mass, C.F., Salathe Jr, E.P., Steed, R., Baars, J., 2022. The mesoscale response to global warming over the pacific northwest evaluated using a regional climate model ensemble. Journal of Climate 35, 2035–2053. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0061.1
    Coles, S., Bawa, J., Trennar, L., and Dorazio, P., 2001, An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values..

    Online Links:

    Other_Citation_Details:
    Coles, S., Bawa, J., Trenner, L., Dorazio, P., 2001. An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. volume 208. London. Springer.

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
    The Salish Sea model constructed with Delft3D has been validated with observations.
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
    Data are concurrent with topobathymetric DEM locations that vary in accuracy cell be cell as reported in Tyler and others (2020).
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
    A formal accuracy assessment of the vertical positional information in the data set has not been conducted for these future projections but are consistent with expected values and assumed comparable to validated accuracy Grossman and others (XXXX) and Grossman and others (2017¬–2020 validation simulations, this same data release).
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    Dataset is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    Data have undergone quality checks and meet standards. Missing data have been filled with NaN values.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints None
Use_Constraints USGS-authored or produced data and information are in the public domain from the U.S. Government and are freely redistributable with proper metadata and source attribution. Please recognize and acknowledge the U.S. Geological Survey as the originator(s) of the dataset and in products derived from these data.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
    Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302
    Denver, CO

    1-888-275-8747 (voice)
    sciencebase@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? The data are presented in three zipped datasets. The first two datasets contain extreme water levels along the 5m isobath of the Salish Sea using GEV (GEV_Salish_Sea_projected_extreme_WLs.zip) and GPD (GPD_Salish_Sea_projected_extreme_WLs.zip) analysis, respectively. The third file contains the model setup files (model-setup-files-projections-2016-2099.zip). E
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.
  4. How can I download or order the data?
  5. What hardware or software do I need in order to use the data set?
    These data can be viewed with any software that reads netCDF files, such as Mathworks MATLAB, Python, Panoply.

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 11-Dec-2023
Metadata author:
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Attn: PCMSC Science Data Coordinator
2885 Mission Street
Santa Cruz, CA

831-427-4747 (voice)
pcmsc_data@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
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