An Expert Elicitation to Inform Coastal Management Decision-making for Mitigating Future Hazards: Elicited Values

Metadata also available as - [Outline] - [Parseable text] - [XML]

Frequently anticipated questions:

What does this data set describe?

Title:
An Expert Elicitation to Inform Coastal Management Decision-making for Mitigating Future Hazards: Elicited Values
Abstract:
A scientific expert elicitation was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in March 2022 to address the feasibility of restoring coastal environments in response to future hazards to best meet management objectives. Subject matter experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics used to evaluate decision objectives and alternatives informed by a stakeholder advisory group for the MS/AL region including Dauphin Island, AL and the Grand Bay estuary in MS/AL. This entailed estimating the effects of three management actions (no-action, interior headland restoration, barrier island beach and dune nourishment) and two environmental scenarios (changes in sea level) on quantifiable performance measures of salt marsh productivity, storm surge flooding, and barrier island morphology by the year 2050. Information was elicited from each expert as a probabilistic estimate following a three-point estimate method where experts were first asked to enter a "low", "high" and "best" estimate, in that order, with instructions that they were 95% confident that bounds would include the true value. The elicited values of each expert are provided in this data release. Identifying information has been removed from all elicited values files to protect confidentiality in accordance with the Privacy Act of 1974. For further information regarding the data collection methods, refer to the associated journal article Passeri and others (2025).
  1. How might this data set be cited?
    Passeri, Davina L., Martin, Julien, Richardson, Matthew S., and Yurek, Simeon, 20251118, An Expert Elicitation to Inform Coastal Management Decision-making for Mitigating Future Hazards: Elicited Values:.

    This is part of the following larger work.

    Passeri, Davina L., Martin, Julien, Richardson, Matthew S., and Yurek, Simeon, 20251118, An Expert Elicitation to Inform Coastal Management Decision-making for Mitigating Future Hazards: Elicited Values: U.S. Geological Survey data release doi:10.5066/P1TUTDPZ, U.S. Geological Survey - St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL.

    Online Links:

  2. What geographic area does the data set cover?
    West_Bounding_Coordinate: -88.4500
    East_Bounding_Coordinate: -88.0500
    North_Bounding_Coordinate: 30.1000
    South_Bounding_Coordinate: 30.4500
  3. What does it look like?
  4. Does the data set describe conditions during a particular time period?
    Calendar_Date: 11-Mar-2022
    Currentness_Reference:
    ground condition
  5. What is the general form of this data set?
    Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: tabular digital data
  6. How does the data set represent geographic features?
    1. How are geographic features stored in the data set?
    2. What coordinate system is used to represent geographic features?
  7. How does the data set describe geographic features?
    Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
    Elicited_Values.zip: Data download file (.zip) containing comma-separated values files (.csv) of the elicited values collected from each of the eleven experts (self-selected identifier numbers 0222, 0525, 0879, 1225, 1234, 1357, 1360, 3010, 4000, 4210, 5024). Detailed attribute descriptions for these files are included in the data dictionary (Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx). These metadata are not complete without this file.
    Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
    The entity and attribute information were generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the dataset. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information.

Who produced the data set?

  1. Who are the originators of the data set? (may include formal authors, digital compilers, and editors)
    • Davina L. Passeri
    • Julien Martin
    • Matthew S. Richardson
    • Simeon Yurek
  2. Who also contributed to the data set?
    U.S. Geological Survey
  3. To whom should users address questions about the data?
    U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: Davina Passeri
    Research Oceanographer
    600 4th Street South
    St. Petersburg, FL
    US

    727-502-8014 (voice)
    dpasseri@usgs.gov

Why was the data set created?

These data were elicited from scientific experts to assess the effects of management actions and environmental scenarios on changes in storm surge flooding, salt marsh extents and barrier island morphology in coastal MS/AL. Elicited_Values.zip is a dataset consisting of Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata and Comma-Separated Values (CSV) files containing the following variables: expert identifier number, performance measure, management action, environmental scenario, low, high and best estimate, and confidence level.

How was the data set created?

  1. From what previous works were the data drawn?
  2. How were the data generated, processed, and modified?
    Date: 2025 (process 1 of 1)
    In March 2022, an expert elicitation was conducted to assess the effects of management actions and environmental scenarios on performance measures of changes in storm surge flooding, salt marsh extents and barrier island morphology in coastal MS/AL. This entailed estimating the effects of three management actions (no-action, interior headland restoration, barrier island beach and dune nourishment) and two environmental scenarios (changes in sea level) on quantifiable performance measures of salt marsh productivity, storm surge flooding, and barrier island morphology by the year 2050. Information was elicited from each expert as a probabilistic estimate following a three-point estimate method where experts were first asked to enter a "low", "high" and "best" estimate, in that order, with instructions that they were 95% confident that bounds would include the true value. The elicited values of each expert are provided in this data release. The elicitation method and details on the performance measures, restoration actions and environmental scenarios are further outlined in Passeri and others (2025). This dataset provides the elicited values for each expert as defined in the accompanying data dictionary (Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx). The elicited values were packaged into CSV files (.csv) for each expert identifier using the functions available in Microsoft Excel for inclusion in this data release. Person who carried out this activity:
    Davina Passeri
    U.S. Geological Survey. St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Research Oceanographer
    600 4th Street S
    St. Petersburg, FL
    USA

    (727)-502-8014 (voice)
    dpasseri@usgs.gov
  3. What similar or related data should the user be aware of?
    Passeri, Davina L., Richardson, Matthew S., Martin, Julien, Yurek, Simeon, Alizad, Karim, Bilskie, Matthew V., Flocks, James G., Frank-Gilchrist, Donya P., Jenkins, Robert L. III, Mickey, Rangley C., Palmsten, Margaret L., Smith, Christopher G., Smith, Kathryn E.L., and Zeigler, Sara L., 20251118, An expert elicitation to inform coastal management decision-making for mitigating future hazards: Journal of Environmental Management 394, Elsevier, Online.

    Online Links:

How reliable are the data; what problems remain in the data set?

  1. How well have the observations been checked?
  2. How accurate are the geographic locations?
  3. How accurate are the heights or depths?
  4. Where are the gaps in the data? What is missing?
    These are the complete elicited values. This dataset is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract section. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details.
  5. How consistent are the relationships among the observations, including topology?
    No formal logical accuracy tests were conducted.

How can someone get a copy of the data set?

Are there legal restrictions on access or use of the data?
Access_Constraints None. Please see 'Distribution Information' for details.
Use_Constraints These data are marked with a Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal License. These data are in the public domain and do not have any use constraints. Users are advised to read the dataset's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations.
  1. Who distributes the data set? (Distributor 1 of 1)
    U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
    Attn: USGS SPCMSC Data Management
    600 4th Street South
    St. Petersburg, FL
    US

    727-502-8000 (voice)
    gs-g-spcmsc_data_inquiries@usgs.gov
  2. What's the catalog number I need to order this data set? Expert_0222_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_0525_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_0879_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1225_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1234_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1357_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_1360_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_3010_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_4000_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_4210_Elicited_Values.csv, Expert_5024_Elicited_Values.csv, and Data_Dictionary_Elicited_Values.docx
  3. What legal disclaimers am I supposed to read?
    Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
  4. How can I download or order the data?

Who wrote the metadata?

Dates:
Last modified: 18-Nov-2025
Metadata author:
USGS SPCMSC Data Management
U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
600 4th Street South
St. Petersburg, FL
US

727-502-8000 (voice)
gs-g-spcmsc_data_inquiries@usgs.gov
Metadata standard:
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (FGDC-STD-001-1998)
This page is <https://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov/catalog/spcmsc/Elicited_Values_metadata.faq.html>
Generated by mp version 2.9.51 on Tue Nov 18 14:06:02 2025