An Expert Elicitation to Inform Coastal Management Decision-making for Mitigating Future Hazards: Elicited Values

A scientific expert elicitation was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in March 2022 to address the feasibility of restoring coastal environments in response to future hazards to best meet management objectives. Subject matter experts produced probabilistic estimates of coastal change metrics used to evaluate decision objectives and alternatives informed by a stakeholder advisory group for the MS/AL region including Dauphin Island, AL and the Grand Bay estuary in MS/AL. This entailed estimating the effects of three management actions (no-action, interior headland restoration, barrier island beach and dune nourishment) and two environmental scenarios (changes in sea level) on quantifiable performance measures of salt marsh productivity, storm surge flooding, and barrier island morphology by the year 2050. Information was elicited from each expert as a probabilistic estimate following a three-point estimate method where experts were first asked to enter a "low", "high" and "best" estimate, in that order, with instructions that they were 95% confident that bounds would include the true value. The elicited values of each expert are provided in this data release. Identifying information has been removed from all elicited values files to protect confidentiality in accordance with the Privacy Act of 1974. For further information regarding the data collection methods, refer to the associated journal article Passeri and others (2025).